| BC | British Columbia |
| DFO | Fisheries and Oceans Canada |
| EBM | Ecosystem Based Management |
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
| RAF | Regional Action Framework |
| RCP | Representative Concentration Pathway |
| SLR | Sea Level Rise |
| MaPP | Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast |
| MPA | Marine Protected Area |
| NSB | Northern Shelf Bioregion |
| PNCIMA | Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area |
| Adaptation | Adjustment in natural human systems to a new or changing environment. Activities that reduce the negative impacts of climate change and/or take advantage of new opportunities that arise from those impacts. Adaptations can be anticipatory (taken before the impacts are observed) or reactive (taken after the impacts have occurred). Adaptation actions can be planned (through deliberate policies and planning) or reactive (through spontaneous, in the moment responses) (Warren and Lemmen 2014; IPCC 2014). |
| Adaptation benefits | The avoided costs or the benefits of following the adoption and implementation of adaptation actions (IPCC 2014). |
| Adaptation costs | The costs of planning, preparing for, facilitating, and implementing adaptation actions (IPCC 2014). |
| Adaptive capacity | A measure of a system’s ability to adjust to change, to take advantage of the opportunities, or cope with the consequences. Used to describe a set of conditions that may allow adaptation to external stressors. Social indicators of high adaptive capacity include social capital, institutional learning, network restructuring, use of experiential knowledge, and flexibility in problem solving. Ecosystems with high adaptive capacity may exhibit high functional redundancy, connectivity among habitats, or contain species with high population diversity or phenotypic plasticity ((Bohensky et al. 2010, Marshall et al. 2010, Biggs et al. 2012, IPCC 2014). |
| Adverse effects | One or more of the following impacts: |
| Climate change | A change in the mean state of the climate, or in climate variability, that persists for decades or longer. This can be reflected in warming of mean air or water temperatures, and also changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as heat waves, heavy rain, storms, and drought. Recent and rapid climate change is attributed to human activities, including the burning of fossil fuels and management actions such as land use changes, that alter the composition of the global atmosphere in addition to natural climate variability (UNFCCC, IPCC 2014). |
| Climate scenario | A projection of future climate conditions. |
| Climate variability | Fluctuations in climate over a shorter term that differ from long term averages or trends, over seasons or several years, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon (UNFCCC). |
| Impact | The consequences or product of climate change, such as changes to air temperature or ocean temperature. Something that logically occurs from a condition related to climate change or climate variability. |
| IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. A group of several thousand qualified experts who review and assess, periodically, all published climate change research. |
| Hazard | A source of potential harm, or a situation with the potential for causing harm, in terms of damage to human health, property, the environment, other things of value, or a combination of these. |
| Ecosystem based management (EBM) | An adaptive approach to managing human and natural systems so that healthy functioning ecosystems may coexist with human communities. The MaPP EBM framework has three key elements: Ecological integrity, Human well-being, and Governance. |
| Resilience | The ability of a system to maintain its current identity, structure, and function through change or disturbance (Adger 2000, Walker et al. 2004). |
| Representative Climate Pathway (RCP) | RCPs describe potential 21st century scenarios of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, atmospheric GHG emissions, aerosols, and land use impacts. RCPs are used for making projections as to the impacts of climate change, and are based on the factors that drive human GHG emissions: population size, economic activities, lifestyle choices, energy use, land use patterns, technology adoption, and climate policy. Hence, each of the RCP scenarios directly relate to the choices made by global society (IPCC 2014, PCIC 2013). |
| Risk | The change of loss as a product of the frequency of occurrence and the severity of the consequence, such as an adverse effect to the environment or property or other thing of value. The level of risk is also affected by the impact to stakeholders. |
| Sea surface height (SSH) | A measure of the difference between the actual height of the sea surface and that which it would have been if the ocean were at rest; the thickness of the water column from the seabed to the free surface of the ocean can be affected by tides, stratification, winds, and currents. |
| Stakeholder | Any individual, group, or organization able to affect, be affected by, or believe they might be affected by a decision or activity. Decision makers are also stakeholders. |
| UNFCCC | The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992). |
| Vulnerability | A measure of a system’s susceptibility to change or a particular impact, and the inability to cope with that impact. A function of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of a system. Vulnerability to climate change is therefore the function of the character, size, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed to, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC 2014). |
Through the Marine Planning Partnership, now Marine Plan Partnership (MaPP), provincial and First Nations governments in BC are working towards sustainable development, improving economic opportunity, and supporting ecological integrity for the North Pacific Coast. This collaborative government to government partnership is an agreement between the Province of British Columbia (BC) and 17 member First Nations represented by the Coastal First Nations Great Bear Initiative, Central Coast Indigenous Resource Alliance, the Council of Haida Nation, the Nanwakolas Council, and the North Coast-Skeena First Nations Stewardship Society.
Marine planning through MaPP started in 2011, and four sub-regional marine plans for the North Coast, the Central Coast, North Vancouver Island, and Haida Gwaii were completed in the spring of 2015. Together, these sub-regions make up the MaPP region, which aligns with the Northern Shelf Bioregion (NSB; Figure 1). Subsequent to the development of the sub-regional marine plans, MaPP produced the Regional Action Framework (RAF) in 2016 to establish regional MaPP actions that are best implemented at a regional scale and also support sub-regional strategies. As part of its planning work, MaPP Partners also completed a series of current conditions and trends reports for the four sub-regions.
Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) is the ‘foundation’ of the MaPP sub-regional plans and the RAF. EBM is a framework that aims to define management strategies for entire systems, rather than managing for individual components, and, importantly, recognizes humans as an explicit component of that system. The MaPP EBM framework was developed by federal, provincial, and First Nations governments in collaboration with stakeholders through the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA) initiative [2]. In the context of MaPP, the marine EBM framework seeks an adaptive approach to management that ensures the co-existence of functioning ecosystems and human communities.
For the MaPP EBM recommendations to be successfully implemented across the region, it is important to consider both the short and long-term effects of climate change. Currently, the MaPP RAF has outlined actions that support monitoring, risk assessment, blue carbon sequestration, education, and public awareness of climate change. Each sub-region has also identified particular objectives and strategies for adaptation to climate change.
Rising emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from human populations and industries are causing the global climate to change, profoundly affecting the world’s ecosystems [32]. Increasing human populations, increasingly intensifying industries and agricultural production, deforestation and land use practices, and increasing fossil fuel based energy production all contribute to rising greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations [5; Figure 1]. Rising emissions continue to reach record levels each year, despite the year to year attempts of some nations to take up alternative energies and seek lower carbon solutions to their energy needs (2016 Global Carbon Budget). The increase in emissions is consistent with the increase in global average temperatures (Figure 4). Globally, the year 2016 and 2017 were the warmest two years on record (from NASA [34], and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s 137-year time series) [4,13; Figure 5]. As carbon emissions and climate change continues largely unchecked, despite many attempts at reaching international agreements on climate change mitigation [1], these changes and impacts are expected to accelerate [35,36].
Anthropogenic climate change poses significant impacts and risks to both natural and human systems. Coastal regions are especially susceptible to these changes as they are affected by both marine and terrestrial impacts. Climate change impacts on coastal regions include increasing ocean temperatures, rising sea levels, changing ocean circulation patterns, precipitation, and water chemistry (ocean acidification and decreasing dissolved oxygen), and increases in the frequency and intensity of storms. Globally, much of the human population (>39%) lives within 100km of the sea, and are therefore dependent upon marine-derived resources for their social, cultural, and economic needs [37]. Coastal communities are closely connected with their adjacent natural systems and are already affected by environmental and social stressors. Climate change impacts can affect coastal social-ecological systems: species, food webs, and associated fisheries and aquaculture; human well-being; cultural and social structures of coastal communities; and the marine infrastructure that communities depend upon for transportation, economic activities, and other services.
The IPCC describes the diverse and complex array of threats to coastal systems worldwide, while also highlighting that the overall uncertainties in projections of impacts on coastal systems are generally still quite high [36].The most recent global projections of climate change impacts and vulnerabilities from the IPCC are based on models of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [36]. The RCP scenarios specify concentrations of greenhouse gases, and are used to project impacts related to climate change (Table 1).
Table 1: Projections of global mean sea level rise in meters relative to 1986-2005 based on ocean thermal expansion calculated from climate models, shown at the four emissions scenarios used by the 5th report of the IPCC. Source: WGI AR5 Summary for Policymakers. IPCC 2014, Coastal and Low-Lying Systems
| Emission scenario | Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) | CO2 concentration in 2100 (ppm) | Mean sea level rise (m) by year 2046-2065 | Mean sea level rise (m) by year 2100 |
| Low | 2.6 | 421 | 0.24 [0.17-0.32] | 0.44 [0.28-0.61] |
| Medium low | 4.5 | 538 | 0.26 [0.19-0.33] | 0.53 [0.36-0.71] |
| Medium high | 6.0 | 670 | 0.25 [0.18-0.32] | 0.55 [0.38-0.73] |
| High (‘business as usual’) | 8.5 | 936 | 0.29 [0.22-0.38] | 0.74 [0.52-0.98] |
In this report, we aim to present the uncertainty in climate change projections by including the projections for climate change variables at the lowest and highest RCP scenario, or the ‘best case’ and ‘worst case’ scenario, whenever possible. Long-term projections or trends within BC are expected to align with global trends in a general sense (i.e. warmer temperatures, more acidic ocean, more marine stratification, rising sea levels), but climate changes may result in regional and sub-regional interactions with localized ocean and atmospheric conditions. The ecological complexity of the BC coast and MaPP region is high, as is the uncertainty in regionally resolved climate change projections. Understanding the ecosystem and the projections of climate effects on the various components of the MaPP social-ecological system is therefore challenging.
In some cases, the spatial data for climate projections within BC are only available for certain scenarios (e.g. sea level rise projections, available for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 only). Many of the available regional and sub-regional climate projections are available through PICS who use an average set of climate models from the IPCC to conduct regional analyses for the BC region at a ‘business as usual’ level of emissions (RCP 8.5) [6,7; Figure 6]. Higher resolution projections of climate effects and impacts on important sectors in this region and within BC generally will improve in the future. The current state of uncertainty means that the present report was conducted with relatively simplified, generalizable impact statements, adaptation actions, and recommendations for climate change impact planning in mind.
Here, we categorize some observed climate change impacts for BC, and specifically the coastal region. Determining trends in climate conditions has been somewhat problematic in BC due to a lack of long-standing empirical data collection and monitoring efforts, especially for the marine system [40]. Nevertheless, information on key climate variables and associated impacts is available with some detail across the region, depending on the impact and spatial scale of the data.
Air temperatures have increased throughout BC by ~1.3⁰C over the past century (from 1900-2013; rates of 0.12 – 0.13⁰C per decade [10,41–43], slightly more than the global average during the same period [36] but less than the rest of Canada [28]. The northern portion of BC has warmed at twice the global average (1.6 to 2.0⁰C per century versus 0.85⁰C per century globally), while the south coast has warmed at a rate of 0.8⁰C per century, roughly the same as the global average [10]. Most of this warming trend has been observed during the winter months (average increase of 2.2⁰C per century), and in the north (3 to 3.8⁰C per century) and south-central (2.6 to 2.9⁰C per century) areas of BC [10,41]. Average daily minimum temperatures have increased the most (increased 2.3⁰C this century) across the province, while average daily maximum temperatures have increased by 0.7⁰C per century [10,11].
Both daily average and daily minimum air temperatures in BC reached record high levels in 2016, and monthly temperatures in the winter of 2016 were more than 5⁰C higher than the baseline period of 1971-2000 [11]. These higher temperatures contribute to other changes in climate, and both negatively as well as positively affect ecosystems and human activities. For instance, increasing air temperatures are associated with decreased heating requirements over the past century in BC, especially in northern BC [10]. Meanwhile, the energy demand for cooling built infrastructure has increased, especially in the southern interior of BC [10]. These changes in energy consumption are directly related to changes in average daily air temperature.
Precipitation is a key indicator of climate change, and changes in precipitation will affect all sectors, ecosystems, and communities. In BC, precipitation has increased over the last 50 years in all seasons by some estimates, or just in the summer months by other reports, with variation across the province [5,25,41]. Province-wide, annual average precipitation has increased by 12% per century [10]. However, these changes have been so far statistically insignificant and can largely be explained by the high natural variation in precipitation patterns across the province [10,42,43]. Winter warming trends led to higher snowpack density (wetter snow) across much of BC from 1950-2014, and as winter temperatures increase, winter snows are likely to continue to be wet and heavy, or even fall as rain [10]. This trend has not yet been significant for the BC coastal region that includes the MaPP region [10].
Changes in the amount, type, and timing of precipitation in BC will certainly affect both terrestrial and marine systems, although the relatively high uncertainty in historical monitoring data means that estimating current precipitation trends and associated impacts is a challenge [10]. In 2016, precipitation levels were higher than average for most regions in BC [11].
Sea level rise is the direct result of warming temperatures that trigger increased melting of glaciers and ice caps, as well as the thermal expansion of warming oceans [44]. Glacial coverage in BC has declined since 1985, and the volume of glacial ice declined by an average rate of 21.9 km3 from 1985-2000 [10]. In the coastal mountain area of BC, which includes the MaPP region, glacier area decreased by approximately 6.4% from 1985-2000 [10]. Sea levels are also affected by ocean and weather patterns such as wind, currents, and salinity, and also by subsidence and uplift of the adjacent land mass due to geological processes. Changes in sea level threatens coastal systems through coastal erosion, seawater inundation, contamination of freshwater systems, and can affect food crops grown in low lying areas.
Global mean sea levels increased 10-20 cm during the 20th century, and have been increasing by 3.2 mm/year since 1993 [32,36]. In BC, the average sea level between 1910-2014 has risen along most of the coast, at a rate of 13.3 cm/century at Prince Rupert, 6.6 cm/century at Victoria, and 3.7cm/century at Vancouver [10]. Sea levels at Prince Rupert and Victoria continue to increase, while off the west coast of Vancouver Island tectonic uplift (isostatic rebound from the weight of ice age glaciers) offsets sea level rise such that water levels appear to be declining (removing this uplift would result in a sea level increase of 13.5 cm per century) [10,11].
Sea surface temperatures are monitored at lighthouse stations along the BC coastline. Average annual sea surface temperatures have warmed between 0.6 to 1.4⁰C per century across the coast of BC [10]. This rate is similar to the global average of 1.1⁰C per century [10,32], although there is significant variation along the BC coast in that some areas have warmed by up to 2.2⁰C per century (e.g. Strait of Georgia, Entrance Island) [10].
In BC waters, recent sea surface temperature trends have been the result of the interaction of three things: climate change warming, El Niño effects (2015-2016), and the ‘warm blob’ phenomenon (2013-2016) where a large area of very warm water (3⁰C warmer than usual) settled off the BC coast [13,45]. In 2016, average sea surface temperatures were 1-2⁰C warmer than the historical average within the Northeastern Pacific Ocean [11]. The average daily sea surface temperature anomaly was higher in 2016 according to both lighthouse station data (0.98⁰C ± 0.33⁰C) and weather buoy data (0.7⁰C average) as compared to the 22-year historical average (1989-2010), which reflects the long term warming trend [11].
Ocean acidification is caused by the dissolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide into the oceans, which results in a decrease in seawater pH and increased acidity [46]. Since the pre-industrial era, the oceans have absorbed approximately one-third of human produced carbon dioxide emissions, resulting in an increase in acidity of more than 26%, the lowest levels in 20 million years [46–49]. The impacts of acidification on marine ecosystems are complex and serious, especially for calcareous and planktonic organisms as it impacts the ability of those organisms to produce and maintain their calcium carbonate shell structures [46,50] as well as potentially increases metabolic stress.
In the Northeastern Pacific Ocean, ocean acidification is one of the most urgent threats to both marine ecosystems and human communities. These waters are already among the most acidic of the world’s ocean regions, due to ocean currents and upwelling of deep ocean waters [5,51,52]. Upwelling waters already have relatively low pH, and organic matter production driven by upwelling currents further lowers the pH of those waters by remineralization.
Globally, dissolved oxygen levels in the ocean have been declining for more than two decades [53]. Declining ocean oxygen levels (hypoxia) is linked with both ocean warming and changing ocean currents, as well as excessive nutrients leading to eutrophication and organic matter decomposition. Oxygen is also less soluble in warmer water, which combined with thermal stratification is predicted to lead to ocean de-oxygenation globally [54]. In the Pacific Ocean, dissolved oxygen levels have been declining over at least the past several decades, at a range of depths from 100-1000m deep down to the sea floor, and oxygen levels between 100-400m depth have decreased by 22% over the past 50 years [5].
Empirical data from lighthouse station monitoring stations in 2016 reflect a long-term trend towards decreasing sea surface salinity (SSS) across the BC coast, except within the Strait of Georgia (Chandler 2017). Longer term data from lighthouse station monitoring shows the same freshening trend; however, this is not associated with longer term climate trends, but with local freshwater sources [55].
Climate change trends have in turn affected coastal ecosystems and economic sectors in BC. As of 2017, some observed impacts that may be associated with climate change trends include both general and specific examples.
Changing ocean temperatures affect marine species, ecosystems, and the human communities and economic sectors that depend on marine resources. Warming ocean temperatures have been observed with associated impacts on the marine ecosystem and fish, for the past several decades [56]. Increasing sea surface temperatures and declining oxygen levels have affected the northern Pacific Ocean, which has likely led to reduced habitat availability and decreased survival for many fishes and invertebrates [57].
Harmful algae blooms during the 2015 ‘warm blob’ event could also be associated with climate warming [58]. During that event, warm water zooplankton were much more abundant than cold water species in 2016. Changing zooplankton species has potential implications for fish, as warm water zooplankton species have lower nutrient quality [58]. Other unusual biological events during that anomalously warm water period included low chlorophyll levels (2014), potentially due to increased stratification and reduced nutrients [59]. This mass of abnormally warm water has since dissipated (in 2016) [11].
Abnormal warm water species sightings that could indicate dramatic species range shifts include sightings of ocean sunfish and warm water sharks off Washington State and Alaska, high catches of albacore tuna off the Washington and Oregon coasts, juvenile pompano sightings near the Columbia River, and widespread stranding of Velella velella off the coast of BC throughout the summer of 2014 [13].
The physical oceanographic impact of increased ocean temperature has had substantial impacts on the marine ecosystem, suggesting that long-term climate warming may have analogous ecosystem responses [13].
Fisheries catches and landed values have declined since the 1990s in BC [56]. A warming trend in sea surface temperatures was detectable even several decades ago [56]. In southern BC, the impacts of warming freshwater and marine water temperatures have been observed, leading to declining fish productivity and diminished returns of Fraser River sockeye salmon [25]. Ocean acidification has been observed in BC, especially along the south coast [61–63]. Increasing rates of acidification are likely to negatively affect calcifying organisms, many of which are important for aquaculture and traditional food resources, including molluscs, bivalves, sea urchins, and sea cucumbers. While observations and field evidence are still limited, the interacting effects of ocean temperature and acidification is of critical concern for many taxa (e.g. molluscs, corals, calcareous algae).
This section describes the current state of knowledge of climate change projections which are likely to affect the MaPP region and four key sectors of interest: ecosystems, human communities and First Nations, fisheries and aquaculture, and marine infrastructure. However, ecosystems are not subject to management boundaries or lines on a map. Anticipated climate changes and associated impacts are more clearly understood at large scales than within the context of a relatively small area such as the MaPP region. The current understanding of climate change projections and associated impacts at the scale of the BC coast and the MaPP region are somewhat uncertain.
In subsequent sections, and where possible, sub-regional differences are identified within the greater MaPP region. Projected climate changes and impacts are also linked with points of vulnerability for those sectors, opportunities for further research based on knowledge gaps, and recommendations for adaptation actions that may alleviate the severity of these impacts. Information on projected impacts and sectoral vulnerabilities, where known, are included (see Maps, Tables).
British Columbia is expected to experience more warming than the global average [70,71]. Even though air temperature is moderated by the ocean, air temperatures are projected to increase by 1.8°C by the 2050s and 2.7°C by the 2080s, and could reach of 3-5⁰C by the end of the 21st century if emissions continue at current rates [70–72]. On average, air temperatures are likely to increase by 0.1-0.6⁰C per decade [73].
The summer growing season is projected to lengthen and frost-free days to increase by 20-30 days by 2050-2080 [73] (see MaPP region Summary Table). Winter minimum temperatures across BC may increase by 4-9°C by 2080, and summer maximum temperatures may increase by 3-4°C [70,73].
Projected changes in precipitation in BC are expected to be relatively minor, especially when compared to the historical variability in the province. The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) projections show that annual precipitation may increase by about 9% by the end of the 21st century, relative to the 1961-1990 baseline (see MaPP region Summary Table), while summer precipitation is projected to decrease by 10% [27,28].
Wetter winters are projected to lead to increased runoff in rivers and streams in the winter. Less precipitation will fall as snow in the winter, which is likely to result in a reduction of the spring snowpack by 55% by 2050 [41]. Glacial runoff in the spring has already declined in southern BC, and this is projected to occur for northern BC glaciers through 2050 and beyond [10,42]. Due to this reduction in snowpack, the spring freshet will likely occur earlier in the spring in many rivers. By the end of the century, spring streamflow will likely have increased significantly, while summer river levels will have decreased [44].
Extreme precipitation events will likely increase during some seasons and in some areas of the province [5,41,70,72]. Heavy precipitation events in BC include phenomena known as ‘atmospheric rivers’ where highly concentrated water vapour streams move moisture from tropical regions towards the poles. These occur frequently in the fall and winter in BC, and impact coastal areas with periods of intense precipitation and flood events [41,70,74]. More frequent atmospheric river events after 2040 (approximately double the current number per year) will affect ecosystems along the coast [74].
Global climate models project that the average global sea level will rise by up to 100-120cm by 2100 [10]. The rate of sea level rise will vary, depending on variations in ocean temperature increase and ocean current patterns. Relative sea level across the coast of BC is projected to rise by an average of 20-30 cm by 2100 (90% confidence interval of 10-50 cm) (MaPP regional table).
However, there are many uncertainties in the projections for sea level rise. Localized ocean currents, tidal patterns, and river discharge rates will also influence the observed rate of sea level rise to particular areas. For instance, some models project higher observed sea surface height (SSH) values along the northern coast of BC during the next century in winter and spring related to wind patterns and increasing river discharge [21].
Warming ocean temperatures will affect ecosystems and species across the world and within this region. In BC, sea surface temperatures are likely to increase by between 0.5°C to 2.0°C by the end of the century (2065-2078, relative to a 1995-2008 baseline) ([21]; see MaPP Regional Table; Maps). The rate of ocean temperature increase may accelerate, as consistent with the accelerating rise in global sea surface temperatures [14,75].
Ocean acidification is occurring faster as higher latitude areas, due to the effects of temperature on carbon dioxide absorption [76–78]). Globally, ocean acidification is projected to increase by 100% or more by 2100, but there is large uncertainty and variation among regions and climate scenarios [32,52,79]. Within the MaPP region, acidification is projected to continue to increase as carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise. Average pH levels could decline to between 7.69-7.96 (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively) by 2091-2100 [32,80].
Ocean oxygen concentrations have been declining in both pelagic (open ocean) and coastal waters for at least the past half-century [81]. Oxygen minimum zones in the open ocean have increased in area, and some coastal areas have low enough oxygen concentrations that marine species distributions and abundances have been affected [81]. Oxygen levels are likely to continue to decline in the northeast Pacific ocean, and coastal shelf and slope marine ecosystems are likely to lose well oxygenated habitats [57]. Seafloor habitats in the North Pacific could experience a reduction of 0.7-3.7% in oxygen levels by 2100 [54].
Ocean salinity is declining globally, along the BC coast, and within the MaPP region [82]. Freshwater discharge from glaciers is a significant contributor to the nearshore waters of BC. Coastal runoff contributes to maintaining the salinity levels along the coast, driven by glaciers, as well as watersheds driven by fall and winter seasonal precipitation. Large river systems (Fraser River, Naas River, Skeena River) also drain large watersheds and experience pronounced spring freshets. Coastal salinity levels are controlled mainly by these processes at the local scale rather than large-scale climate changes [55]. Salinity effects also influence total sea level rise through ocean expansion through global ocean warming [32,83,84].
Changes in wind and wave patterns may interact with other climate change projections such as sea level rise, but the projections of future winds and storm events are highly uncertain [36]. Storm intensities in the North Pacific increased during 1940-1998, and storm surge related winds and storms may become more frequent and intense as air and ocean temperatures increase [44,85].
Given the increasing rate of carbon emissions and the marginal success of global mitigation efforts, even higher rates of climate changes are expected in the future. Indeed, many of the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise, ocean temperature, and ocean acidification are likely to be worse than current projections [72]. Information on climate change projections, sectoral impacts, associated vulnerabilities and risks, and potential adaptation actions aim to inform policies that will ensure resilient communities and regions. A critical part of this process, therefore, is to include information on the social and economic status of the regions and communities. For example, information on climate change effects on the fisheries sector would be more meaningful if human dependencies on the fisheries sector is also known and included in vulnerability and risk analyses and recommendations of adaptation actions.
In the MaPP region, there is limited information on vulnerability and risk of predicted climate changes for human communities and sectors. While there is some information on exposure to climate impacts, data on adaptive capacity and sensitivity are largely not available across the region at this time. As such, based on the available literature and ongoing research, we comment on predicted climate change impacts from the climate change projections described in the previous section, and on probable exposure and risk to four key sectors: ecosystems, First Nations and non-First Nations communities, fisheries and aquaculture, and marine infrastructure. This information is provided at the MaPP regional scale and, where possible, further details are provided at the sub-regional scale. The MaPP regional level information is always relevant for the sub-regions, just at a coarse scale due to the quality of available data.
Climate change will affect ecosystems throughout the region. The vulnerability of marine species to the cumulative effects of climate change depends on intrinsic adaptive capacities and sensitivities (based on biological or ecological traits), and extrinsic threats (impacts), such as increasing sea surface temperature or ocean acidification [86]. The cumulative effects of climate change on the food webs of the northeast Pacific may lead to a 30% reduction in total ecosystem biomass [17].
Air temperatures are projected to increase at 0.3⁰C per decade in BC [72], still less than is expected across the country as a whole [43]. Melting glaciers will result in higher spring time water discharge into streams and rivers in the short term, while over time glacial retreat will likely lead to reduced water levels in glacier-fed streams, particularly during summer [10].
Due to the reduction in snowpack associated with decreased winter precipitation and warmer air temperatures, the spring runoff (freshet) will likely occur earlier in the spring in many rivers. This will have downstream effects on freshwater habitats, and linked marine systems [10,21], which will already be warmer and less oxygenated. These changes are likely to negatively impact the reproductive capacity and survival of fish and other aquatic species [6,87]. The sheer increase in freshwater volume entering coastal marine waters will also affect salinity and stratification of ocean surface waters.
Increased precipitation may lead to more runoff of contaminants and terrestrially derived nutrients – which, when combined with higher water temperatures, could increase the likelihood of toxic algae blooms in freshwater and marine ecosystems [29]. The increase in freshwater volume entering coastal marine waters may also decrease sea surface salinity and of ocean surface stratification. These stressors are likely to affect marine fishes and mammals that depend on nearshore habitats and are adapted to current oceanographic conditions [29].
Sea level rise may affect coastal ecosystems through changes to habitat, especially for nearshore areas if important intertidal habitat becomes permanently sub-tidal, affecting nearshore plants, algae, and shellfish. Sea level rise is likely to cause an increase in the inland penetration of salt water in tidal systems. The abundance and species composition of coastal plants and algae, along with associated invertebrate habitats, could be altered if important intertidal habitat becomes permanently sub-tidal as sea levels rise [29].
Generally, coastal sensitivity to sea level rise depends on the physical geology of the coastline, and as such low-lying sandy regions will be most impacted. Most of the shoreline of BC has low sensitivity to sea level rise due to the rocky, fjordal coastline, but some areas (near Prince Rupert, Bella Bella, and most of Vancouver Island) are moderately sensitive (based on a recent provincial shoreline sensitivity analysis; [23]). Highly sensitive areas within the MaPP region include the northeast corner of Haida Gwaii [9,44]. For both the MaPP region and sub-regions, some moderate and high sensitive areas correspond with culturally important (First Nations) archaeological sites (see Map Section: Archaeological Sites Sensitive to Sea Level Rise Map, MaPP Region).
Increasing sea surface temperatures are likely to affect zooplankton biomass, contributing to overall biomass declines of lower trophic level species [29]. Increasing ocean temperature and the northerly shift in the California Current may lead to higher abundance of low nutrient zooplankton, which would in turn affect juvenile fish species such as herring and salmonids [60,88]. Phytoplankton species composition is also likely to change, which could also affect higher trophic levels who depend on high quality zooplankton [17,58,60,89]. Kelps (giant kelp and bull kelp) and eelgrass (Zostera marina) are also likely to be negatively affected by warming sea surface temperatures; the cumulative impact of temperature along with decreasing salinity and increasing sedimentation from runoff will influence the productivity and distribution of these important habitat forming species [6].
Ocean acidification will certainly continue to affect coastal BC [52], although there are significant knowledge gaps in terms of the effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms (Appendix 2 Table 2). Where data exist, it is more reliable for commercially viable shellfish species (e.g. oysters and other shellfish) and issues that may affect human health (e.g. harmful algae blooms) [52]. Already, the ocean below 300m depth is corrosive to aragonite shells, and it is likely that the saturation depth will continue to decrease, threatening shelled organisms and the fishes that feed on them, including Pacific salmon [4,52]. There is a strong likelihood that the negative impacts associated with ocean acidification could increase rapidly, and that the effects on marine species could potentially cause large shifts in species distribution and community assemblages across both latitude and depth [54].
Ocean acidification may affect habitat availability and the abundance of those species dependent upon calcifying organisms for structural habitats, and those whose larval stage is affected by a decrease in pH. For example, by 2100, cold water corals are projected to degrade due to ocean acidification, which will affect habitat availability for fish populations, therefore affecting fisheries productivity [54]. The effects of ocean acidification on trophic dynamics (food web interactions) and the synergistic effects of ocean acidification with other climate change projections, such as increasing ocean temperature and declining oxygen levels, are uncertain and requires further research [52,63].
Ocean acidification will certainly continue to affect coastal BC [52], although there are significant knowledge gaps in terms of the effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms (Appendix 2 Table 2). Where data exist, it is more reliable for commercially viable shellfish species (e.g. oysters and other shellfish) and issues that may affect human health (e.g. harmful algae blooms) [52]. Already, the ocean below 300m depth is corrosive to aragonite shells, and it is likely that the saturation depth will continue to decrease, threatening shelled organisms and the fishes that feed on them, including Pacific salmon [4,52]. There is a strong likelihood that the negative impacts associated with ocean acidification could increase rapidly, and that the effects on marine species could potentially cause large shifts in species distribution and community assemblages across both latitude and depth [54].
Ocean acidification may affect habitat availability and the abundance of those species dependent upon calcifying organisms for structural habitats, and those whose larval stage is affected by a decrease in pH. For example, by 2100, cold water corals are projected to degrade due to ocean acidification, which will affect habitat availability for fish populations, therefore affecting fisheries productivity [54]. The effects of ocean acidification on trophic dynamics (food web interactions) and the synergistic effects of ocean acidification with other climate change projections, such as increasing ocean temperature and declining oxygen levels, are uncertain and requires further research [52,63].
Changes in salinity can affect both sexual reproduction and vegetative propagation of seagrasses [29,90]. Declining salinity levels may affect the habitat, survival, and growth of marine fish and shellfish; in the Arctic, declining salinity has been shown to reduce phytoplankton size, which in turn affects productivity of higher trophic levels [54].
Changes in the timing of spring currents is also likely to affect biological interactions such as plankton availability, in turn affecting larval fish and invertebrates [29]. These changes could negatively affect marine fish and invertebrate recruitment, but the specifics of this impact are currently unknown [29].
Fisheries and aquaculture are an especially important sector for coastal communities and First Nations. For many, fishing is a way of life which cannot be measured by the contribution to the economy alone, as the social and cultural values play a large role. Existing stresses and impacts on BC’s coastal fisheries are expected to be exacerbated by climate change, and in some cases (such as salmon), these impacts are already evident. The fishing industry has already declined significantly across the province: since the 1980s, the fishing fleet has shrunk by 60% and there are 70% fewer fishers employed in the industry [91]. The effects of climate change on fisheries in this region are reflected in projected species range shifts, in that the abundance of current target species is projected to decrease, and that the species currently available across the region are likely to change [12,17,92,93]. The impacts of these projected changes in fisheries catches could lead to or amplify other socio-economic impacts of climate change on fisheries and communities through reduced food security and economic loss [92].
The associated impacts of sea level rise on land erosion and increased runoff is likely to directly affect nearshore species, especially filter feeders (shellfish) if water quality declines. Existing shellfish beds are likely to be affected, which will have implications for many species which depend upon the intertidal ecosystem for habitat and food, especially as juveniles (salmon, crab, eelgrass, algae, clams, humans) [94]. Spawning habitat for forage fish, and rearing habitats for invertebrates, could decrease or be lost due to erosion, subsidence, and submersion due to sea level rise [29]. This may be particularly problematic for Pacific herring, as that species prefers coastal marine algal species for spawning substrate, habitats that may potentially be lost as sea levels rise [29].
The associated impacts of sea level rise on land erosion and increased runoff is likely to directly affect nearshore species, especially filter feeders (shellfish) if water quality declines. Existing shellfish beds are likely to be affected, which will have implications for many species which depend upon the intertidal ecosystem for habitat and food, especially as juveniles (salmon, crab, eelgrass, algae, clams, humans) [94]. Spawning habitat for forage fish, and rearing habitats for invertebrates, could decrease or be lost due to erosion, subsidence, and submersion due to sea level rise [29]. This may be particularly problematic for Pacific herring, as that species prefers coastal marine algal species for spawning substrate, habitats that may potentially be lost as sea levels rise [29].
The effects of ocean acidification on fisheries are largely unknown, including on the important salmon and Pacific halibut fisheries [27,43; Appendix Table 2). In tropical fish, ocean acidification affects behaviour and results in increased mortality, but species responses in temperate regions are unknown [52]. Adult fish may be more tolerant of ocean acidification than early development stages, but there is limited research on life stage specific responses to pH for BC fishes specifically [52].
The effects of ocean acidification on shelled organisms, however, are much more understood ([52,99–101]. Aquaculture has the potential to improve food security and support remote economies. Across BC, capture fisheries landings are either in decline or somewhat stable, while aquaculture continues to grow (with some exceptions due to recent ocean acidification issues, e.g. Strait of Georgia, [102]). In the MaPP region, aquaculture is of great interest to coastal communities and First Nations. Currently, aquaculture operations in BC focus on salmon and other finfish, as well as shellfish including oysters and geoduck clams. Ocean acidification is likely to negatively affect shellfish aquaculture [99], and changes to oceanographic conditions including acidification are likely to affect finfish aquaculture as well [52]. The specific effects of ocean acidification on shelled molluscs varies by species, and a recent review suggested that acidification most negatively affects survival and shell growth (calcification), followed by respiration and clearance rates [99].
Ocean deoxygenation will affect commercial fish species by reducing high quality fish habitat. Declining oxygen levels across the Pacific Ocean will contribute to the general decline and potential collapse of sessile (immobile) marine species, or sediment-dwelling organisms, as well as any other species who are intolerant of low oxygen levels. Declining oxygen levels are likely to especially affect groundfish species, whose habitat seems to already be decreasing by 2-3m per year, potentially related to declining oxygen levels [4]. Declining oxygen levels, and increasing hypoxia, will also likely affect aquaculture operations for vulnerable species, such as Dungeness crab and spot prawns [29]. Some hypoxia tolerant species (e.g. squid, jellyfish) may increase in abundance and/or distribution, potentially outcompeting less tolerant species (e.g. finfish) [54, 77].
Coastal First Nations and non-First Nations communities depend on the ocean and nearshore environments for economic, social, and cultural values. The coastal economy of British Columbia is largely based on the recreational tourism (33%), transport (29%), and seafood (12%) sectors [91,103]. Climate change will affect the coastal communities of the MaPP region through increased air temperature, changing precipitation patterns, accelerated sea level rise and the increased incidence of extreme weather events, such as storm surge related flooding, increased rates of coastal erosion, freshwater contamination from seawater inundation, and a suite of ecological changes associated with other climate changes. These communities are at risk for land loss, damage to coastal infrastructure, and changes to resource availability, all of which will affect economic, social, and cultural historical values [25].
Climate change impacts are likely to continue to unevenly affect communities along the coast due to different exposures to those impacts. An added dynamic is that any climate related impact has a cumulative effect on non-climatic issues already affecting these communities, such as declining resource industries, economic or social restructuring, and ongoing land claims agreements in the case of First Nations communities. In general, rural and remote communities in BC tend to have a lower socio-economic index, which is indicative of economic hardship, education, health, and other risk factors. These trends are indicative of community vulnerability, and low rankings in those social indicators suggests low adaptive capacity to manage large stressors like climate change [91].
Especially for First Nations communities, access and availability of traditional foods has decreased as ecosystems have been exploited or converted to other uses, and the productivity of remaining intact ecosystems has been impacted by factors including pollution, management actions, or invasive species. An example of an observed impact of climate change on community food security is the changing timing of wild plant ripening and harvest [67,94].
Increasing air temperatures mean that winter heating requirements are likely to continue to decrease across the province, while summer cooling requirements and costs will increase [10]. In some cases, increasing summer temperatures may negatively impact communities through mortality linked to heat stress. Most homes along the BC coast lack air conditioning, and it is likely that increasing air temperatures, especially during extremely high temperature events, will lead to greater incidence of heat stroke and potential mortality [104]. However, increasing air temperatures may attract more tourism for a longer summer season, which will have positive economic implications for coastal communities.
Sea level rise will not affect areas along the BC coast equally due to differences in vertical land movement [105]. Observed sea level rise is also affected by local and regional contributions, including melting glaciers and ice sheets, water volume changes due to temperature and salinity effects, and vertical land changes from glacial rebound, tectonic processes, and compaction (land sinking) [44]. Most of the north coast of British Columbia is steep and rocky, and therefore is less likely to be impacted by sea level rise. Notable exceptions include the northeastern coast of Graham Island, Haida Gwaii, an area which is amongst Canada’s most sensitive coastlines to climate change [25].
Many remote coastal communities and First Nations’ heritage sites are vulnerable to enhanced erosion and storm-surge flooding associated with sea-level rise (See Regional Map: Archaeological sites sensitive to sea level rise). In addition, groundwater quality could decline due to saltwater intrusion as sea levels rise [25].
Increasing ocean temperatures will impact coastal communities that are reliant on fisheries and other marine species for food security and economic activities. Many species that are currently important to coastal communities (First Nations and non-First Nations) are projected to shift northwards from their current species range (at rates of 10-18 km/decade) and also decline in relative abundance (up to ~40% declines, depending on the species and climate scenario) [92].
[Hartley Bay]
Ocean acidification will impact coastal communities that are directly dependent on calcareous organisms such as shellfish for food and income [52]. Acidification will also affect fisheries through negative impacts on food web dynamics and lower trophic level organisms [94]. Shellfish are likely to be affected across life stages, and this decline in economically important species (oysters, scallops, abalone, mussels) will affect the economies of coastal communities in the region. Decreased access to these traditional foods also has implications for human health and culture [106].
While the impacts from sea level rise combined with extreme events and storm surge are projected to be highly problematic for the region, especially in low-lying areas, little is known about the interactions of extreme weather events and climate impacts along the BC coast [107] and thus within the MaPP region. Regional models of sea level rise and seasonal climatic variability patterns would improve the ability of coastal managers to predict flood hazards and associated risk factors for the region and sub-regions.
BC has three major international ports, four regional ports, and 40 local harbours [74]. Within the MaPP region, Prince Rupert is the largest port with the capacity for shipping infrastructure and container ships.
Most communities within the MaPP region are highly dependent on marine infrastructure for transportation of goods and services; as support for the fishery and aquaculture industries; and for providing connections with other essential infrastructure and utilities such as roads, sewage systems, power and communications cables. The greatest threats to marine infrastructure in the MaPP region are likely to be sea level rise and increasing extreme weather events.
Sea level rise already threatens coastal infrastructure, and the added risk of storm surge flooding increases the vulnerability of coastal infrastructure across the province [27,74]. Sea level rise is expected to inundate some of the critical infrastructure at the coastal areas. Some communities in BC have begun to take action to reduce the risk of sea level rise through investments in built infrastructure for shoreline protection as an adaptation measure [27]. Further adaptation examples can be found in urban areas near the Fraser River floodplain, an area that is highly vulnerable to sea level rise due to low lying geology and dense population.
A recent analysis found that the costs of sea level related damage to on-shore built infrastructure would be higher in coastal BC than any other coastal region in Canada [108].
Across the MaPP region, increasing intensity and frequency of storms is likely to increase inundation risk (flooding) and erosion risk to marine infrastructure, especially for low lying communities [109]. Properties along the coast also will experience increased risk of wave damage, which is associated with coastal erosion. It is highly likely that climate changes, especially during El Niño events, will lead to high coastal erosion across the entire eastern Pacific region [109].
Extreme weather events are expected to create disruptions to marine transportation lanes, potentially lead to wave and wind damage to infrastructure and utilities, and reduce access to critical services [110]. Extreme precipitation events in particular may damage fixed coastal infrastructure such as airports (e.g. Sandspit Airport on Haida Gwaii), and ports (e.g. Port of Prince Rupert), and well as affect marine transportation lanes [74,110]. Overall, climate-related impacts to marine infrastructure are likely to be higher than anticipated, as many communities in coastal BC already have infrastructure deficits that will require increased investment [91,103]. Future winter and spring sea surface height (SSH) levels are also projected to be consistently higher, which will further exacerbate the flooding impacts of sea level rise [21]. Large peak flows and storms can interrupt delivery of goods such as fuel and food to remote places. On the other hand, climate change may also offer some opportunities for the marine transportation sector: longer construction seasons and reduced winter maintenance could reduce costs and increase annual operating budgets. In the longer term, increased sea levels may mean that vessels with deeper draughts will be able to enter existing ports, perhaps an opportunity for marine shipping [110].
Across the MaPP region, increasing intensity and frequency of storms is likely to increase inundation risk (flooding) and erosion risk to marine infrastructure, especially for low lying communities [109]. Properties along the coast also will experience increased risk of wave damage, which is associated with coastal erosion. It is highly likely that climate changes, especially during El Niño events, will lead to high coastal erosion across the entire eastern Pacific region [109].
Extreme weather events are expected to create disruptions to marine transportation lanes, potentially lead to wave and wind damage to infrastructure and utilities, and reduce access to critical services [110]. Extreme precipitation events in particular may damage fixed coastal infrastructure such as airports (e.g. Sandspit Airport on Haida Gwaii), and ports (e.g. Port of Prince Rupert), and well as affect marine transportation lanes [74,110]. Overall, climate-related impacts to marine infrastructure are likely to be higher than anticipated, as many communities in coastal BC already have infrastructure deficits that will require increased investment [91,103]. Future winter and spring sea surface height (SSH) levels are also projected to be consistently higher, which will further exacerbate the flooding impacts of sea level rise [21]. Large peak flows and storms can interrupt delivery of goods such as fuel and food to remote places. On the other hand, climate change may also offer some opportunities for the marine transportation sector: longer construction seasons and reduced winter maintenance could reduce costs and increase annual operating budgets. In the longer term, increased sea levels may mean that vessels with deeper draughts will be able to enter existing ports, perhaps an opportunity for marine shipping [110].
The previous section included climate change projections and impacts at the scale of the BC coast and MaPP region. Here, we include additional projections and impacts that are specific to MaPP sub-regions, while emphasizing that all regional level projections and impacts are still relevant at the sub-regional level. Please reference the sub-regional tables for further details on sub-regional projections and sectoral impacts. Note that for many climate change variables, sub-regional resolution (finer scale) information is lacking or inconsistent (see section on knowledge gaps and recommendations).
Air temperatures on the north portion of Vancouver Island are expected to increase by 2050 to the same range as currently experienced in Vancouver [10,42], which reflects approximately 1.4°C warming relative to a 1960s-1990 baseline. Increasing air temperatures threaten fisheries and aquaculture through associated ocean warming which is likely to affect seasonality of traditional food resources as the summer season extends and frost-free days increase. There are potential benefits to tourism, an important sector in this sub-region, as the summer season lengthens and becomes warmer and more appealing.
Winter precipitation is predicted to increase in this sub-region, leading to increasing spring freshwater discharge that will also contribute to stronger flows in Queen Charlotte Sound [21,42,73]. Increased precipitation and stream discharge will increase flood risk to communities, while decreased summer precipitation will increase drought potential in summer months. Tourism may benefit as summer precipitation levels decrease, potentially attracting foreign visitors to outdoor recreation opportunities. However, winter snowfall is likely to decrease by as much as 33%, which could affect winter tourism and recreation.
Sea level rise projections are quite uncertain at the scale of MaPP sub-regions. Sea level rise will potentially not impact this sub-region as much as other sub-regions. By 2100, sea levels are projected to increase by approximately 14cm (range of 4.5 – 32.4cm), but may rise as much as 0.6m to 0.9m [21,44]. Rising sea levels are likely to impact the extensive aquaculture infrastructure in this region (finfish and shellfish), and producers will likely have to adjust the locations of some of their nearshore facilities. Commercial forestry, fisheries, and marine shipping sectors should take sea level rise projections (see North Vancouver Island Sea Level Rise maps) into consideration when planning future processing sites and harbor infrastructure. Commercial tourism facilities such as fishing lodges and marinas will also have to adjust their docks and other near-shore infrastructure to account for rising sea levels and increased storm surge events.
Sea surface temperatures will likely increase, and salinity will likely continue to decrease across the coastline and within this sub-region [55,82]. Average sea surface temperature is projected to increase on average by 1.8°C by the end of the century compared to 1961-1990 baseline [21,22]. Sea surface salinity will decline by ~1% to ~3% with by the end of the century 1961-1990 baseline as the ocean freshens with increased precipitation, terrestrial runoff, and melting glaciers [21,36]. Increasing sea surface temperatures will threaten fisheries productivity, especially for finfish which are sensitive to temperature, and lead to shifts in marine species distribution [92]. Rising temperatures and changing species distributions and abundance is likely to affect marine based food security for local communities. The commercial fishing industry is likely to continue to experience declining catch, particularly for temperature sensitive species such as salmon ([92,96,111]; Appendix 2 Table 1), and the extensive finfish aquaculture in this sub-region may also be affected .
Changes in ocean properties are also expected for the North Vancouver Island region. Ocean acidification is projected to continue, and average projections suggest that that ocean pH will fall to ~7.95 pH -7.68 pH under the IPCC high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2100 [32].
Some specific impacts at the scale of the North Vancouver Island sub-region are related to sea level rise and extreme weather events. There are numerous cultural and historic sites that may be particularly sensitive to rising sea levels based on recent shoreline sensitivity analyses (see North Vancouver Island Regional Shoreline Sensitivity Map). In particular, lower elevation foreshore or nearshore areas throughout the area are more likely to experience flooding and erosion.
Annual air temperatures in the Central Coast sub-region are expected to increase by approximately 1.6°C by 2050, which is similar to the current temperatures experienced in Vancouver [10,36,42] (see Central Coast Sub-regional Table). Summer precipitation is also predicted to increase in this sub-region, leading to increasing freshwater discharge will also contribute to stronger flows in Hecate Strait [21,42,73].
Changing precipitation patterns means that streamflow patterns are likely to change, such that summer stream flow is lower, with associated impacts to salmon and other anadromous or freshwater fish. It is possible that low flow conditions within the watershed could occur over the entire year, though generally they are likely to occur during the late fall and early winter. Within the context of future climate changes and related vulnerabilities of freshwater habitats, changes in the frequency, timing, and magnitude of such low flow conditions may have greater effects on salmon migration, spawning, and incubation than at present.
Sea levels are projected to increase within the Central Coast sub-region, but not as much as other sub-regions. Some specific impacts at the scale of the Central Coast sub-region are due to sea level rise and extreme weather events. Sea levels near Bella Bella are projected to rise by approximately 9 cm by 2100 (range -5.4 to 22 cm) (Thomson et al. 2008). However, localized land uplifting (+2.3mm per year) means that overall, the Central Coast sub-region is not likely to experience net negative impacts from sea level rise in the foreseeable future [44].
There are some cultural and historic sites that may be particularly likely to be affected by rising sea levels based on recent shoreline sensitivity analyses and locations of historic First Nations sites (see Central Coast Archaeological Sites Shoreline Sensitivity Map).
Sea surface temperatures are expected to increase by ~1.9°C by the latter portion of the century, with impacts to fisheries and communities through loss of fisheries landings and adjustments in fishery target species. Ocean acidification will increase, affecting calcifying organisms and the aquaculture industry. These changes will likely affect coastal communities, especially First Nations communities who rely on bivalves and other shellfish for food security and income.
Air temperatures in the North Coast region are projected to increase by up to 2.6°C by 2080, and the sub-region will experience more growing degree days, more frost free days, and higher winter minimum temperatures [73] (see North Coast Sub-regional Table). Rising temperatures will potentially decrease energy requirements for heating in the winter months, and potentially increase energy requirements for cooling in the summer months. Precipitation is projected to increase in the North Coast region by up to 20% in summer months, and by 10-25% in winter [73]. The increase in freshwater volume entering marine waters in this sub-region is likely to be greater than in other sub-regions due to large rivers, including the Skeena River, feeding into the marine area. This increase in freshwater volume will affect marine temperature, salinity, and stratification of nearshore surface layers[29,55]. Increasing freshwater discharge will also contribute to stronger flows in Dixon Entrance [21].
Relative sea level rise is projected to rise the most in the North Coast sub-region, specifically off Prince Rupert Harbour. Mean sea level rise projections for the port of Prince Rupert by 2100 suggest that sea levels will increase by approximately 25cm (range 13.2 – 37cm) with extremely high projections reaching 0.95-1.16m [6,44,68]. Sea level rise impacts are likely to be much higher for the North Coast when compared to southern BC, due partially to increasing precipitation in this sub-region [41,44,73].
Increasing sea levels and high water events are linked to beach erosion in this region; this impact has already been observed over the past two decades [107]. Models based on highest sea level events over the past century project that the frequency of storm-related high water events are likely to increase at twice the rate of the relative mean sea level trend for Prince Rupert, and the frequency of storm winds are also likely to significantly increase [107]. These projections will likely affect coastal communities through changes to food security,
Given the relationships among the PDO, ENSO, and low river flows, it is likely that climate-induced changes to hydrology will also occur in North Coast watersheds. Low flow conditions within the watershed can occur over the entire year, though generally are more prevalent during the late fall and early winter after summer drought. Within the context of future climate changes and related vulnerabilities of freshwater habitats, changes in the frequency, timing, and magnitude of such low flow conditions may have greater effects on salmon migration, spawning, and incubation than at present [41,112].
There are some cultural and historic sites that may be particularly likely to be affected by rising sea levels based on a recent shoreline sensitivity analysis overlaid with locations of historic First Nations sites (see North Coast Archaeological Sites Shoreline Sensitivity Map).
The average air temperatures in Haida Gwaii may increase by 1.4°C by the 2050s and by 2.2°C by the 2080s. The number of growing degree days will increase and frost free days will increase, as winter minimum temperatures may increase by up to 4-9°C by 2080 [10,42,70,71,73]. The average annual precipitation is likely to increase by 7% on average by the 2050s, and by closer to 9% by the 2080s ([73]; see Sub-regional Table, Haida Gwaii). Rising air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns are likely to threaten fisheries related tourism, yet may also provide potential benefits to the tourist season as the summer becomes warmer and longer. Increasing precipitation poses flooding risks to local communities in Haida Gwaii, which may affect access to traditional food gathering places. Increased spring runoff could damage coastal infrastructure, especially in the case of earlier freshet floods.
Sea level rise is projected to impact Haida Gwaii, especially low-lying areas along the east coast of Graham Island [21,25,85]. The coast of Haida Gwaii, especially the east coast of Graham Island, is highly dynamic; with sea level rise, the area is likely to erode as beaches and sand dunes migrate onshore. This sediment transfer is likely to cause shoreline retreat along coastal beaches (Walker and Barrie 2006). Previous projections by the Geological Survey of Canada have identified that area as among the top 3% most sensitive coastlines in Canada, due to the combination of low lying shoreline and easily eroded shorelines with large tidal ranges [69,107]. The ecosystems of Haida Gwaii are highly exposed to rising sea levels and increasing sea surface temperatures. Rising sea levels increase the risk of permanent inundation of important coastal habitats and can lead to loss of wetlands which are critical for bird and fish species. In addition, increasing sea surface temperatures are likely to diminish ecosystem health and alter coastal habitat composition [6]. There are also many cultural and historic sites that may be affected by rising sea levels based on a recent shoreline sensitivity analysis (see Haida Gwaii Archaeological Sites Shoreline Sensitivity Map).
Extreme storms and associated storm surge events are expected to intensify in this region due to the cumulative impacts of El Niño, the PDO, and sea level rise [69]. Previous El Niño events led to sea level rise and erosion along the same shoreline, and high water levels have since increased significantly [25]. Increasing winter winds are projected to increase seasonal currents and eddies near Rose Spit, Middle Bank, and Goose Island Bank [21]
Climate change impacts on fisheries in the area of the Queen Charlotte basin are somewhat uncertain [25]. While projections suggest declining species abundance and changing species compositions [92], the effects of warmer waters, altered production regimes, and exotic species have not yet produced obvious declines of herring and salmon in this area [25].
Climate change will impact the social, economic and environmental exposure of Haida Gwaii’s coastal communities. Particularly, sea level rise, and wind, wave and storms will have the highest direct impacts. Indirectly, changes in the ecosystems and fisheries and aquaculture will result in negative social and economic impacts on Haida Gwaii communities due to the high dependence to resource based life. Coastal communities and cultural and historical sites along the low-lying coastal areas of Haida Gwaii are the most exposed to rising sea levels, and winds, waves and storms. This is due to the increased likelihood of coastal flooding and erosion, and increased frequency, strength, and duration of storms and wind/wave action [31,42,107]. Increasing maintenance and insurance costs associated with the sea level rise and storm damages will also affect all Haida Gwaii communities [25].
Due to its geographic positioning, Haida Gwaii highly depends on its marine infrastructure for delivery of and access to goods and services, fishing and harvesting practices, and provisioning of utilities. Marine infrastructure in Haida Gwaii is increasingly exposed to climate change impacts, particularly to rising sea levels, and to increasing wave and wind actions from storms. The risk of marine transportation interruption is increasing due to increase in intensity, frequency and duration of storms, which will directly impact the delivery of goods and services, and access to the mainland [25].
Besides the marine transportation links and lanes, the infrastructure that supports the marine and land transportation is also likely to be affected by rising sea levels and heavy wind and wave actions. For example, the likelihood of damage to fixed coastal infrastructures, such as the Sandspit Airport, is likely to increase over time [74]. In addition, roads, utilities, power, communication, and flood protection infrastructures will experience inundation and/or structural damages with the increased risk of flooding, erosion and damage caused by rising sea levels, and wind and wave actions [25,42,113].
Adapting to climate change requires a comprehensive understanding of climate change projections and sectoral impacts in order to identify priorities, find solutions, and implement adaptation actions. Based on our literature review and discussions with researchers, we highlight some knowledge gaps and ongoing research relevant to the MaPP region and sub-regions.
This is certainly not a comprehensive review of all ongoing or planned research, and the points below are merely to provide a starting point for understanding and framing next steps for directing research on climate change projections, impacts, vulnerabilities, risk, and adaptations. Ongoing research efforts are not in the public realm, and as such it is difficult to systematically document upcoming results or new projects. Recommendations for future research are from published literature, recent government reports, and/or discussions with specific researchers, and as such there are likely more opportunities for research than are mentioned here.
There is still a great deal of uncertainty in global climate change projections for coastal regions, and the associated vulnerabilities and risks [1,114,115]. Part of this uncertainty is due to lack of or limited access to reliable and continuous data sources. Specifically, large population centers and regions often draw most of the resources for long-term observations and other scientific monitoring necessary for adequate research. The other part of the uncertainty is the unpredictability of humans and their actions. New technologies are developed every day, but the diffusion and adoption of these technologies is often relatively slow. Understanding vulnerability and risk is more meaningful in smaller scales as characteristics of each community, their socio-economic structure, coastal context, environmental conditions, and institutional capacity contributes to their local vulnerability. Therefore, for uncertainties surrounding vulnerability and risk, the main knowledge gap lies with the lack of existing studies investigating the local and regional exposure and sensitivity to various climate change impacts.
This uncertainty in global climate projections and knowledge of local vulnerabilities and risk is further amplified by regional variations in local climate which interact with climate change, such as the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) [5,7,36]. Investments in monitoring and research will improve our understanding of climate change projections and impacts across the coastal region and at fine scales such as the MaPP sub-regions. Within BC, additional monitoring programs through the Hakai Institute and MEOPAR are in progress to monitor key climate change indicators including ocean acidification.
Statistical downscaling can be used to map coarse-scale global climate model outputs to finer scale (regional or local) detail, using the empirical relationship between observed climatology at the finer resolution, and coarse-scale model fields. Regional climate models can also produce local projections, which may better represent the local responses to climate change [116]. There is a lack of reliable downscaled projections or regional climate modeled data for most climate impacts in the marine environment of BC, and within the MaPP region. Much of the climate impacts work within BC is focused on terrestrial impacts (e.g. [117]; AdaptTree), rather than marine and coastal impacts, and as such is of more limited applicability to the marine and coastal focus of the MaPP region (T. Murdoch, PCIC, pers. comm. July 2017). Regional climate vulnerabilities are also unknown for most sectors within BC. Fisheries and Oceans Canada has an ongoing project to model climate change vulnerabilities in some fisheries (Karen Hunter, pers. comm. July 2017.), with early results expected within the next year. Other work is focused on modeling the impacts of warming river temperatures on juvenile salmon, with results forthcoming (K. Hunter, DFO, pers. comm. July 2017).
The existing state of knowledge for ocean acidification is limited, and other than global datasets, there are currently no projections at the scale of the BC coast [63]. This is partly due to a lack of empirical data as model inputs. Sampling for alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon has occurred as a regular part of DFO surveys since 1992 and 1986 respectively, but the data has been fragmented and inconsistent [63]. Very little is known about the state of the nearshore waters. Ongoing efforts to model changes in ocean chemistry (nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen) will improve the overall understanding of coastal biochemical processes and nearshore acidification and hypoxia levels (K. Hunter, DFO, pers. comm. July 2017). In addition, further efforts to model changes and extremes in pH (Ianson and Monahan, in progress; [29]) will improve the understanding of projected changes in acidification and the associated impacts.
Models and projections of extreme weather events are lacking for coastal BC [74]. There is little available data on future extreme weather, storm surge, or sea level rise at the scale of the MaPP region. Existing estimates of future sea-level rise vary widely, and projections at a regional scale are either largely unavailable or even more variable.
Investment in this research area would allow decision makers to better plan and implement operational adaptive actions to improve the outcome of high wind events and storm surge impacts. Risk assessments for extreme weather and storm surge, especially as these impacts combine with sea level rise, will continue to be an important area of research in order to develop the appropriate information to maintain and build infrastructure along the coastal region.
Improved projections of sea level rise for Canada’s coastlines are in progress with Fisheries and Oceans Canada through the Regional Mean Sea-Level Rise Scenarios for the Canadian Coasts program, which will produce four regional sea level scenarios (from low to high) for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic coasts [30]. These data will improve the ability of regions, communities, and sectors to manage infrastructure and development in a way that facilitates effective adaptation to the risks associated with sea level changes. Sea level rise projections [36] have been produced at decadal time periods through to 2100 and are included in this report (see Maps section), but are at a coarse scale and not at a fine scale for in-shore waters. Forthcoming marine connectivity analyses will help to identify communities that are highly dependent on marine infrastructure and would be very vulnerable to disruption [118].
There is ongoing work through Fisheries and Oceans Canada to develop a hind-castwave model for coastal BC waters (expected in 2 years), which will characterize storm surge patterns across the coast and fill data gaps in the northern coast where tide gauges are sparse (T. James, Natural Resources Canada, pers. comm. June 2017). The Canadian Geodetic Survey is also working to develop sea level rise projections for Canada’s coastal areas, but results are not yet available (T. James, Natural Resources Canada, pers. comm. June 2017).
Projected changes to climate variables are likely to interact to affect the likelihood of species invasions in BC waters, as habitats and oceanographic conditions change to facilitate the establishment of warm water species through species range expansions [12,13]. Marine diseases are also likely to increase in frequency and intensity, as species already stressed due to direct climate changes such as rising ocean temperatures are also more susceptible to infection [5]. The biological interactions and additive effects of disease and invasive species, such as green crab which is already invading BC waters [119], are highly uncertain [5, 86, 120].
Adaptation involves both proactively preparing for expected climate changes, as well as adjusting to climate change or its impacts after they occur. Minimally, adaptation can serve to moderate the harmful impacts of change, or allow for positive outcomes by taking advantage of new arising opportunities. Both human and natural systems can adapt to climate change and/or to the impacts of climate changes. While natural ecosystems can only adjust to climate changes once they occur, human communities can plan by using climate predictions to anticipate the impacts and benefits of climate change. Successful adaptation actions will mean that the impacts of climate change could be reduced or be less severe than if no adaptations had occurred. For communities, successful adaptation may mean that adaptation strategies allow them to function (economically, socially, built environmentally, and institutionally) even after the disturbances occur.
Effective climate change adaptation requires a strategic stepwise approach that includes identifying climate impacts within the context of the MaPP region. This would include initial assessments of vulnerability and risk in order to prioritize adaptation actions, and an adaptation plan that fits the governance structure and communities at stake. Across Canada, awareness of climate change impacts and the necessity of adaptation planning is increasing [27]. In British Columbia, the provincial Adaptation Strategy [121] aims to prepare the province for the impacts of climate change to the environment and social systems. Under the BC Climate Action Plan, there are a range of actions that are intended to help increase resilience to climate change and reduce vulnerabilities. This adaptation plan is based on three key components: building a strong knowledge base with tools for decision makers to prepare for climate change, incorporating climate adaptation within policy decisions, and improving assessment and implementation of appropriate adaptation actions in especially vulnerable sectors [121]. While these reports and adaptation plans are encouraging and signify a shift in management and governance investment in climate adaptation, there has been until recently far less investment in adaptation research and planning for coastal management and fisheries sectors when compared to terrestrial areas and sectors such as forestry and agriculture [28].
The overall goal of climate change adaptation is to reduce vulnerability and risk associated with climate change and its impacts. Adaptation to climate change can be either proactive or reactive. Reactive management includes responses to changes that have already happened, and proactive management prepares for changes before they occur. While acting earlier (more proactively) will generally increase management flexibility, there are also financial costs to implementing adaptation actions [122]. Finding the balance of adaptive and reactive actions to climate impacts and associated risk may be different for different sectors. Adaptation actions can include policy changes, improvements or changes in technology, behavioral or management responses, or adjustments to regulations that affect local and regional decision making: successful adaptation requires a flexible, adaptive management system. Adaptive capacity can be further enhanced or reduced by the governance and decision-making policies at play [123].
In BC, recent efforts to increase community involvement at both local (municipal) and regional scales has resulted in better incorporation of local interests and values in long term planning [25,85,112,121,124]. Local community-based planning has been a key mechanism for community members and stakeholders to evaluate and incorporate climate change effects in order to improve adaptive capacity. However, there are few examples of decision making processes, policies, or institutions that explicitly incorporate or consider climate change impacts within BC [25,125].
Climate change adaptation is a growing focus for the province of BC. Municipal governments have been particularly focused on issues of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding issues. Much of this work is ongoing in southern BC, outside of the MaPP region. Sea level rise and coastal inundation threatens much of low lying Metro Vancouver, where projects including extensive dike systems and sea level adaptation plans are either in place or in process [25]. These projects can serve as examples of potential future work for the communities of the MaPP region, especially as results of implementation become more apparent.
Adaptation to climate change can be either to respond to negative impacts or to generate positive benefits, for example:
Negative:
Negative or positive:
Climate change impacts on ecosystems are diverse and cumulative. Managing for ecological resilience and adaptation to climate change will require integrative approaches that will also benefit ecological productivity and fisheries. Climate change impacts in the fisheries sector primarily demands management responses to protect or enhance existing fisheries and stocks. However, First Nations fisheries may have fewer options for adaptation, especially given the coast-wide dependence on marine resources for food security and cultural uses [25,67,92]. In these cases, traditional ecological knowledge may offer examples of adaptive strategies to enhance food security and thus community resilience in these systems. As an example, recent research on clam garden mariculture has illuminated the historical importance of First Nations aquaculture on this coast [126,127]. First Nations communities on the BC coast have a long and diverse history of traditional food production practices; learning from these techniques may offer adaptive strategies for communities now and in the future.
Proactive management options aim to increase the resilience of a fishery, fishers, or ecosystem, based on predicting the effects of change. In some cases, reactive management approaches may be suitable or successful given that predictive modeling of future environmental conditions and associated fisheries may be uncertain [122,128,129]. Proactive management for supporting fishery-based economies and coastal communities can support the resilience of fishers and the communities that depend upon fishing. As fish distributions and abundances shift with climate change, fisheries will have to adjust by changing target species, fishing areas, fisheries openings, and processing locations [122,130].
Proactive management approaches for supporting fisheries and ecosystem health
1. Scenario planning to identify management options despite uncertainty. These can be simplistic or highly technical.
Examples: Descriptive scenarios to identify options for management to move fisheries or add value to fishery products; simulation modeling.
2. Marine reserves/Marine protected areas: Support functional diversity of an area or ecosystem.
Examples: Protect current and future habitats of protected species, protect core areas of stock distribution through time by modifying reserve boundaries, manage dynamic reserves based on environmental conditions over time, e.g. dynamic ocean management (DOM).
3. Management that promotes adaptive capacity of fish species and populations. Aim to improve or maintain genetic diversity of fish species and populations by reducing stressors, protecting populations with high genetic diversity, or highly tolerant populations (e.g. high temperature tolerance). Avoid targeting populations at the edges of species distribution.
Examples: Area based fishing closures, increase research on genetic diversity and plasticity of populations.
4. Protect fish population age structure, especially old females to increase population resilience to changing conditions.
Examples: Increase marine protected areas, use maximum size limits, modify fishing gear to prevent capturing large fish, increase post-release survival, use area-based or temporal fishing closures to limit catching large individuals.
Examples of protection-related adaptation actions include:
Other sectoral responses may include increasing hatchery production and aquaculture development, although these changes have other ancillary tradeoffs that may not contribute to overall ecosystem health.
Adaptive management techniques for fishers and the fisheries sector include:
Reactive management approaches for fisheries and fishing-based communities include:
1. Flexible and adaptive management systems that reward innovation, coordination, and collaboration between regions and management bodies. Increased monitoring and use of indicators can help to prepare managers and planners as conditions change and management needs shift.
Example: Dynamic ocean management (DOM): Dynamic spatial closures to adjust fisheries activity based on real-time data on environmental conditions and distribution of fish species.
2. Adjusting fisheries reference points often to reflect changes in species or stock abundance.
Depends on high quality monitoring data of fisheries and environmental variability.
3. Adjusting fisheries allocations after species distributions or abundances have changed.
Depends on high quality monitoring and modeling of species distributions and abundances, and clearly defined allocation rules based on indicators of change.
4. Adjusting fishing practices or fishing gear once fish communities change. As fish species distributions and abundances shift in response to climate impacts, fishers could adjust their fishing practices or gear to reduce interactions with non-target stocks or protected species.
Can have negative tradeoffs based on economic costs, and changes to social structure of communities. Depends on involving fishers early in management discussions.
In order to build adaptive capacity at the scale of the region and sub-regions, it is important to build on existing programs and attributes. Governments and communities need to remain open to communication and collaboration in order to develop tools and resources to enable regional and sub-regional decision making for effective adaptation action. They need to adopt integrated and adaptive management practices that increase access to and distribution of resources such as allocating roles and responsibilities, distribution of relief goods and provision of relief services; developing early warning and evacuation systems; creating education and awareness programs; and making arrangements for secure shelter and food, and access to health care, education, economic and social resources [75,131–134]. In addition, through adaptive management practices, higher sectoral, institutional, and stakeholder representation can be achieved in decision-making processes [132].
The coastal community context is especially relevant within the MaPP region. Adaptive capacity building at the community level should be supported by national, regional, and sub-regional institutions and policies. Regional and sub-regional management should understand how local communities and local institutions function and are managed in order to support local adaptation actions and community resilience to major change. Remote communities may already possess attributes of resilience through their sociocultural context that may improve their adaptive capacity to climate change. A transparent knowledge- and data- based climate change adaptation process can enhance existing adaptive capacities [129,132,135–137]. Particularly, by empowering local organizations (e.g. First Nations offices), socio-economic groups that are already vulnerable can be included in decision-making processes [134,138].
Building adaptive capacity and resilience in remote communities is dependent on a variety of factors, including: 1) existing local and regional institutional capacity; 2) local socio-economic development; 3) infrastructure development and condition; and 4) local experience with extreme weather events and other environmental or socioeconomic stress [132,139]. Other factors that can contribute include social networks and cohesion, income diversification, and self-reliance [25,140]. However, current social and economic stressors are likely to reduce the capacity for remote communities to undertake or even consider climate change adaptation. Many coastal communities within the MaPP region already experience economic hardship and are limited in their capacity to undertake new initiatives or projects, even if the long-term benefits are relevant. Building on initiatives that are already in place to address environmental and economic changes and incorporating considerations of the impacts of climate change should be more effective for those communities [25].
Especially for First Nations communities, past experiences with historical social, cultural or economic changes can offer lessons for adapting to climate change. For example, in southern Vancouver Island the W̱SÁNEĆ people share a historic story involving rising sea levels and community adaptation responses which may offer insight into adaptation actions for communities in response to climate change in the present day [141]. Key attributes of social adaptive capacity such as social capital and community networks are often already evident in place-based communities and community ties. However, for effective adaptation planning, climate change impacts and adaptation needs to be seen as relevant for present-day local community planning and management [25,124].
In BC, the provincial government has conducted vulnerability assessments for highway systems and continues to monitor and assess sea level rise. The British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure is one of the first jurisdictions to require infrastructure design work for the ministry to include climate change implications. However, infrastructure operators in BC have primarily been responding reactively to failures, rather than anticipating and proactively preparing for projected changes or impacts [74]. This approach typically results in impacts being more costly or severe than if proactive adaptation actions had been taken.
Across the infrastructure sector, proactive approaches such as integrated vulnerability and risk assessments that incorporate climate projections, using effective guidelines for data interpretation by managers and decision-makers, could improve adaptive learning and decisions. Incorporating the results of climate change vulnerability and risk assessments into planning and adaptation efforts for the marine transportation sector would reduce the risks from climate impacts and improve the likelihood of adaptation. Proactive climate change adaptation can foster environmentally and socially responsible planning strategies, that protect communities, built environments, and marine infrastructure. Responsible planning strategies can be limiting to human activities and development in vulnerable areas, preserve and enhance coastal ecosystems that provide flooding and erosion protection [142], or support communities to retreat from hazardous areas.
While attributes of resilience may exist inherently, the impacts of climate change challenge long term adaptive capacities through rapidly rising sea levels and coastal storms, new impacts that threaten coastal communities who are dependent on vulnerable infrastructure and a lack of essential relief services [25]. Limited economic resources and support to cope with increasing impacts, and the lack of land use planning that considers climate change, also affects the adaptive capacity of coastal communities.
To date, most climate change related adaptations have been reactive responses to unpredicted events, such as extreme forest fires or the mountain pine beetle epidemic. Planning for climate change seems to compete with a host of other priorities for the limited capacity of local and regional governance, as only one of the many stressors that affect the ecosystems, industries, and communities of British Columbia. For these reasons, cumulative impacts assessment [143–146] may be highly appropriate for regional (and/or sub-regional) adaptation planning.
Proactive adaptation examples for coastal marine infrastructure include:
Meaningful adaptation actions will need to consider the projected climate impacts and sectoral impacts, as well as the risk and vulnerabilities associated with these impacts. The evaluation of the risks and vulnerabilities along with climate and sectoral impacts will allow a more in-depth understanding of how the region and sub-regions are impacted by climate change. A number of risk and vulnerability assessments/frameworks will be evaluated in the second report. Here we present a number of recommendations for improving the understanding of climate change impacts for the region and implementing effective adaptation actions.
For ecosystem level adaptation to climate change, a bet-hedging strategy for management is to aim to generally promote, protect, and restore biodiversity [5,147,148]. While key species are certainly of particular importance for ecosystems and human values, intact ecological communities with genetically diverse populations and high biodiversity are generally considered to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change [147]. To that end, some general recommendations for managing ecosystems within the MaPP region in an era of accelerating climate change include:
This report serves as a scoping exercise to provide a baseline of understanding of the expected climate changes and associated impacts across coastal BC and the NSB over the coming decades. The available data project that rising air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns will lead to warmer summers, milder winters with less snowpack, and drier summer months. Sea surface temperatures will likely continue to increase. Ocean acidification is likely to increase as carbon dioxide is absorbed by the ocean. More extreme weather events can be expected, with more storms, atmospheric river events, and coastal flooding. These impacts will likely have cumulative effects across the region.
The climate changes – both observed and projected – that are outlined in this report are likely to result in multiple impacts to the key sectors in the MaPP region, some of which are understood but many of which have a great deal of uncertainty associated with them. Long-range planning and early, proactive adaptation efforts will be very important to accommodate those predicted and also unanticipated impacts. This report is a starting point for additional research on climate changes, vulnerability and risk assessments, and climate change adaptation in the MaPP region and sub-regions.
When new global projections are available from the IPCC, and new regionally downscaled projections are available within BC and the MaPP region (and possibly sub-regions), a more specific understanding of the multiple impacts of climate change may be possible. However, acting now on climate change adaptation is important to prepare for the predicted changes ahead, to increase resilience, and to ensure that economic, social, and cultural opportunities are still available to the communities of the MaPP region.
Vulnerability and risk assessments may be conducted to set regional and sub-regional priorities for further research and monitoring, to understand the economic costs of climate impacts, and to inform planning and implementation of adaptation actions. To that end, additional work undertaken by Conger and Whitney in 2018 includes a review of vulnerability and risk assessment tools including strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and tradeoffs of each as relevant to the context of the MaPP region and sub-regions. Looking ahead, we emphasize that given the uncertainty that currently exists in climate change projections and associated impacts, adaptation actions should be chosen that support resilient social-ecological systems and are flexible to allow management and communities to evolve as climate change unfolds.
[1] IPCC, Summary for Policymakers In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V, 2014. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2009.11.012.
[2] PNCIMA, Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area Plan, (2013) 78.
[3] DFO, Development of a framework and principles for the biogeological classification of Canadian marine areas, DFO Can Sci Adv Secr Sci Advis Rep 2010/030. (2009).
[4] P. Cummins, R. Haigh, Ecosystem Status and Trends Report for North Coast and Hecate Strait ecozone, DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/045. (2010) 61.
[5] T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’ s Pacific marine ecosystems: A summary of scientific knowledge, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
[6] T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
[7] S.W. Fleming, P.H. Whitfield, S.W. Fleming, P.H. Whitfield, Spatiotemporal mapping of ENSO and PDO surface meteorological signals in British Columbia , Yukon , and southeast Alaska Spatiotemporal Mapping of ENSO and PDO Surface Meteorological Signals in British Columbia , Yukon , and Southeast Alaska, 5900 (2017). doi:10.3137/AO1107.2010.
[8] M. Newman, M.A. Alexander, T.R. Ault, K.M. Cobb, C. Deser, E. Di Lorenzo, et al., The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, revisited, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. (2015) 1–63. doi:10.1023/A:1015820616384.
[9] BCME, Environmental Trends in British Columbia: 2007, 2007. www.env.gov.bc.ca/soe/.
[10] BCME, Indicators of Climate Change for British Columbia, 2016.
[11] P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J.B. Editors, State of the Physical , Biological and Selected Fishery Resources of Pacific Canadian Marine Ecosystems in 2016 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3225, 2017.
[12] W.W.L. Cheung, R.D. Brodeur, T.A. Okey, D. Pauly, Projecting future changes in distributions of pelagic fish species of Northeast Pacific shelf seas, Prog. Oceanogr. 130 (2015) 19–31. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2014.09.003.
[13] N.A. Bond, M.F. Cronin, H. Freeland, N. Mantua, Causes and impacts of the 2014 warm anomaly in the NE Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett. 42 (2015) 3414–3420. doi:10.1002/2015GL063306.
[14] T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’ s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
[15] T.A. Okey, H. Alidina, S. Agbayani, Mapping ecological vulnerability to recent climate change in Canada ’ s Pacific marine ecosystems, Ocean Coast. Manag. 106 (2015) 35–48. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.01.009.
[16] C. Clarke Murray, S. Agbayani, N.C. Ban, Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems, Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 4 (2015) 110–116. doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2015.06.003.
[17] C.H. Ainsworth, J.F. Samhouri, D.S. Busch, W.W.L. Cheung, J. Dunne, T. a. Okey, Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries, ICES J. Mar. Sci. 68 (2011) 1217–1229. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr043.
[18] A. CH, P. TJ, H. JJ, M. Vasconcellos, Reconstructing historical marine ecosystems using food web models: Northern British Columbia from pre-European contact to present, Ecol. Modell. 216 (2008) 354–368. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.05.005.
[19] S. Guénette, J. Alder, Lessons from Marine Protected Areas and Integrated Ocean Management Initiatives in Canada, Coast. Manag. 35 (2007) 51–78. doi:10.1080/10.1080/08920750600970578.
[20] A. C, H. JJ, P. TJ, V. M, Ecosystem models of northern British Columbia for the time periods 2000, 1950, 1900 and 1750., Univ B C Fish Cent Res Rep. 10 (2002) 1–41.
[21] M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, W. Callendar, et al., A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf, Atmosphere-Ocean. 0 (2014) 1–19. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
[22] J.R. Christian, M.G.G. Foreman, Climate Trends and Projections for the Pacific Large Aquatic Basin, 2013.
[23] B. Biffard, D., Stevens, T., Rao, A., Woods, BC Parks Shoreline Sensitivity Model, 2014.
[24] E. Canada, The Canada Country Study, 1998.
[25] I.J. Walker, R. Sydneysmith, Chapter 8: British Columbia, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, E. Bush (Eds.), From Impacts to Adapt. Canada a Chang. Clim., Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2008: pp. 329–386.
[26] F.J. Warren, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective, 2004. adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca.
[27] D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James, E. Mercer Clarke, C.S.l., Canada’s Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2016.
[28] F.. Warren, E. Lemmen, D.S., Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation, Ottawa, ON, 2014.
[29] K. Hunter, J. Wade, Pacific Large Aquatic Basin Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Opportunities Assessment – Marine Species and Aquaculture., Fish. Ocean. Canada. (2015).
[30] ACCASP, Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program, (2017). http://www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/rp-pr/accasp-psaccma/projects-projets/022-eng.html. (accessed October 27, 2017).
[31] J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate change vulnerability maps for the North Pacific coast of British Columbia: Implications for coastal and marine spatial planning, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
[32] IPCC, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2013., Cambridge, UK, and New York, 2013.
[33] B. Ekwurzel, J. Boneham, M.W. Dalton, The rise in global atmospheric CO2 , surface temperature, and sea level from emissions traced to major carbon producers, Clim. C. (2017). doi:10.1007/s10584-017-1978-0.
[34] Long-Term Warming Trend Continued in 2017: NASA, NOAA, (2018). https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/long-term-warming-trend-continued-in-2017-nasa-noaa.
[35] NOAA, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, (2017).
[36] IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, Switzerland, n.d.
[37] J.E. Cohen, C. Small, A. Mellinger, J. Gallup, J. Sachs, Estimates of Coastal Populations, Science (80-. ). 278 (1997) 1209 LP-1213. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/278/5341/1209.4.abstract.
[38] T.Q. Murdock, D.L. Spittlehouse, Selecting and using climate change scenarios for British Columbia, Pacific Clim. Impacts Consort. (2011) 39.
[39] S.R. Sobie, T.Q. Murdock, High-Resolution Statistical Downscaling in Southwestern British Columbia, J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 56 (2017) 1625–1641. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0287.1.
[40] T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
[41] D.R. Rodenhuis, K.E. Bennet, A.T. Werner, T.Q. Murdock, D. Bronaugh, Hydro-climatology and future climate impacts in British Columbia, in: Pacific Clim. Impacts Consortium, Univ. Victoria, Victoria BC, n.d.: p. 132 pp.
[42] PCIC, Climate Summary for: West Coast Region., 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf.
[43] N. Vadeboncoeur, Perspectives on Canada’s West Coast region, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James, C.S.L. Mercer Clarke (Eds.), Canada’s Mar. Coasts a Chang. Clim., Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2016: pp. 207–252.
[44] R.E. Thomson, Bornhold, B.D., S. Mazzotti, An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in coastal British Columbia, Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr. Ocean Sci. 260 (2008) 49.
[45] E. DiLorenzo, N. Mantua, Multi-year persistence of the 2014/15 North Pacific marine heatwave. Nature Climate Change, Nat. Clim. Chang. (2016). doi:10.1038/ nclimate3082.
[46] C.L. Sabine, R.A. Feely, N. Gruber, R.M. Key, K. Lee, J.L. Bullister, et al., The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2, Science (80-. ). 305 (2004) 367–372.
[47] K. Caldeira, M.E. Wickett, Anthropogenic carbon and ocean pH, Nature. 425 (2003) 365.
[48] K. Caldeira, M.E. Wickett, Ocean model predictions of chemistry changes from carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere and ocean, J. Geophys. Res. 110 (2005) 1–12. doi:10.1029/2004JC002671.
[49] R.A. Feely, S.R. Alin, J. Newton, C.L. Sabine, M. Warner, A. Devol, et al., The combined effects of ocean acidification , mixing, and respiration on pH and carbonate saturation in an urbanized estuary, Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 88 (2010) 442–449. doi:10.1016/j.ecss.2010.05.004.
[50] C.E. Cornwall, T.D. Eddy, Effects of Near-Future Ocean Acidification, Fishing, and Marine Protection on a Temperate Coastal Ecosystem., Conserv. Biol. 0 (2014) 1–9. doi:10.1111/cobi.12394.
[51] F. Chan, J.A. Barth, C.A. Bl, R.H. Byrne, F. C, O. Cheriton, Persistent spatial structuring of coastal ocean acidification in the California Current System, Sci. Rep. (2017) 1–7. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-02777-y.
[52] R. Haigh, D. Ianson, C.A. Holt, H.E. Neate, A.M. Edwards, Effects of Ocean Acidification on Temperate Coastal Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries in the Northeast Pacific, PLoS One. 10 (2015) e0117533. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117533.
[53] C. Ito, T., Minobe, S., Long, M. C. and Deutsch, Upper ocean O2 trends: 1958–2015., Geophys. Res. Lett. 44 (2017).
[54] A.K. Sweetman, A.R. Thurber, C.R. Smith, L.A. Levin, C. Mora, C. Wei, et al., Major impacts of climate change on deep-sea benthic ecosystems, (2017).
[55] P.F. Cummins, D. Masson, Climatic variability and trends in the surface waters of coastal British Columbia, Prog. Oceanogr. 120 (2014) 279–290. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2013.10.002.
[56] G. a McFarlane, J.R. King, R.J. Beamish, Have there been recent changes in climate? Ask the fish, Prog. Oceanogr. 47 (2000) 147–169. doi:10.1016/S0079-6611(00)00034-3.
[57] F.A. Whitney, H.J. Freeland, M. Robert, Persistently declining oxygen levels in the interior waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific, Prog. Oceanogr. 75 (2007) 179–199. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2007.08.007.
[58] R.I. Perry, A. Peña, BC CDC, in: Mar. Biotoxin Work. Oct. 2016, North Vancouver, 2016.
[59] F.A. Whitney, Anomalous winter winds decrease 2014 transition zone productivity in the NE Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett. 2014 (2015) 428–431. doi:10.1002/2014GL062634.Received.
[60] M. Galbraith, K. Young, Zooplankton along the B.C. continental margin 2016., in: P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J. Boldt (Eds.), State Phys. Biol. Sel. Fish. Resour. Pacific Can. Mar. Ecosyst. 2016. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3225., 2017.
[61] D. Ianson, S. Allen, B. Moore-maley, R. Haigh, S. Johannessen, The vulnerability of the Strait of Georgia (Canada) to future hypoxia and ocean acidification, Geophys. Res. Abstr. 18 (2016) EGU2016-12687.
[62] D. Ianson, S.E. Allen, B.L. Moore-maley, S.C. Johannessen, R.W. Macdonald, Vulnerability of a semienclosed estuarine sea to ocean acidification in contrast with hypoxia, (2016). doi:10.1002/2016GL068996.Abstract.
[63] K.L. Hunter, A.R.S. Ross, D. Ianson, L.A. Miller, C.M. Pearce, J.R. Christian, et al., Pacific Ocean Acidification Working Group – 2014 / 2015 Report Canadian Manuscript Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3070, (2015).
[64] S.C.H. Grant, C.G.J. Michielsens, B.L. MacDonald, Fraser River Sockeye: abundance and productivity trends., in: P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J. Boldt (Eds.), State Phys. Biol. Sel. Fish. Resour. Pacific Can. Mar. Ecosyst. 2016. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3225., 2017.
[65] I. Semeniuk, Sockeye salmon recommended for listing under Species At Risk Act, Globe Mail. (2017). https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/sockeye-salmon-recommended-for-listing-under-species-at-risk-act/article37178682/.
[66] F.A. Whitney, Are central coast sockeye affected by glacial retreat?, in: P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J. Boldt (Eds.), State Phys. Biol. Sel. Fish. Resour. Pacific Can. Mar. Ecosyst. 2016, S. Can. Te, 2017.
[67] N.J. Turner, H. Clifton, “It’s so different today”: Climate change and indigenous lifeways in British Columbia, Canada, Glob. Environ. Chang. 19 (2009) 180–190. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2009.01.005.
[68] R.F.M. Sales, Vulnerability and adaptation of coastal communities to climate variability and sea-level rise: Their implications for integrated coastal management in Cavite City, Philippines, Ocean Coast. Manag. 52 (2009) 395–404. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2009.04.007.
[69] A.I.J. Walker, J. V Barrie, I.J. Walkerf, J. V Barriej, Geomorphology and Sea-level Rise on one of Canada’ s Most Sensitive Coasts: Northeast Graham Island , British Columbia, J. Coast. Res. III (2006) 220–226.
[70] R.G. Pike, D.L. Spittlehouse, K.E. Bennett, V.N. Egginton, P.J. Tschaplinski, T.Q. Murdock, et al., Climate change and watershed hydrology: Part I – recent and projected changes in British Columbia, Streamline Water Manag. Bull. 11 (2008) 1–7.
[71] D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate change, impacts, and adaptation scenarios: climate change and forest and range management in British Columbia, B.C. Tech. Rep. 45 (2008). http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfd/pubs/Docs/Tr/Tr045.htm.
[72] P.W. Mote, E.P. Salathé, Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Clim. Change. 102 (2010) 29–50. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z.
[73] PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for British Columbia 2050s & 2080s, PCIC. (2013). https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (accessed December 1, 2017).
[74] D. Nyland, J.R. Nodelman, British Columbia, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Clim. Risks Adapt. Pract. Can. Transp. Sect. 2016, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 66–103.
[75] R.J.T. Klein, G.F. Midgley, B.L. Preston, M. Alam, F.G.H. Berkhout, K. Dow, et al., Adaptation Opportunities, Constraints, and Limits, in: Clim. Chang. 2014 Impacts, Adapt. Vulnerability. Part A Glob. Sect. Asp. Contrib. Work. Gr. II to Fifth Assess. Rep. Intergov. Panel Clim. Chang. [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J., 2014: pp. 899–943.
[76] L.R. Gerber, M. Del Mark Mancha-Cisneros, M. O’Connor, E.R. Selig, Climate change impacts on connectivity in the ocean: Implications for conservation, Ecosphere. 5 (2014) 1–18. doi:10.1890/ES13-00336.1.
[77] S.C. Doney, M. Ruckelshaus, J. Emmett Duffy, J.P. Barry, F. Chan, C. a. English, et al., Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems, Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci. 4 (2012) 11–37. doi:10.1146/annurev-marine-041911-111611.
[78] R.H. Byrne, S. Mecking, R.A. Feely, X. Liu, Direct observations of basin-wide acidification of the North Pacific Ocean, Geophys. Res. Lett. 37 (2010) 1–5. doi:10.1029/2009GL040999.
[79] L. V. Weatherdon, A.K. Magnan, A.D. Rogers, U.R. Sumaila, W.W.L. Cheung, Observed and Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Marine Fisheries, Aquaculture, Coastal Tourism, and Human Health: An Update, Front. Mar. Sci. 3 (2016) 48. doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00048.
[80] E.C. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, IPCC WG5 Ocean chemistry, (2013). https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
[81] D. Breitburg, L.A. Levin, A. Oschlies, M. Grégoire, F.P. Chavez, D.J. Conley, et al., Declining oxygen in the global ocean and coastal waters, Science (80-. ). 359 (2018) eaam7240. doi:10.1126/science.aam7240.
[82] P. Chandler, Sea surface temperature and salinity trends observed at lighthouses and weather buoys in British Columbia, 2016., in: P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J. Boldt (Eds.), State Phys. Biol. Sel. Fish. Resour. Pacific Can. Mar. Ecosyst. 2016, 2017.
[83] T. Barker, Climate Change 2007 : An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, 2007. doi:10.1256/004316502320517344.
[84] G. Han, Z. Ma, N. Chen, R. Thomson, A. Slangen, G. Han, et al., Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries Changes in Mean Relative Sea Level around Canada in the Twentieth and Twenty-First Centuries, Atmosphere-Ocean. 53 (2015) 452–463. doi:10.1080/07055900.2015.1057100.
[85] A.H. Dolan, I.J. Walker, Understanding vulnerability of coastal communities to climate change related risks, J. Coast. Res. SI 39 (2006) 1316–1323.
[86] M.C. Jones, W.W.L. Cheung, Using fuzzy logic to determine the vulnerability of marine species to climate change, (2017). doi:10.1111/gcb.13869.
[87] P.S. Rand, S.G. Hinch, J. Morrison, M.G.G. Foreman, M.J. Macnutt, J.S. Macdonald, et al., Effects of River Discharge , Temperature , and Future Climates on Energetics and Mortality of Adult Migrating Fraser River Sockeye Salmon, Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. (2006) 655–667. doi:10.1577/T05-023.1.
[88] J. Cleary, M. Grinnel, K. Daniel, M. Thompson, J. Boldt, Pacific herring in British Columbia, 2016., in: P.C. Chandler, S.A. King, J. Boldt (Eds.), State Phys. Biol. Sel. Fish. Resour. Pacific Can. Mar. Ecosyst. 2016. Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3225., 2016.
[89] C.R. Johnson, S.C. Banks, N.S. Barrett, F. Cazassus, P.K. Dunstan, G.J. Edgar, et al., Climate change cascades: Shifts in oceanography, species’ ranges and subtidal marine community dynamics in eastern Tasmania, J. Exp. Mar. Bio. Ecol. 400 (2011) 17–32. doi:10.1016/j.jembe.2011.02.032.
[90] A. Rahman, S. Worldfish, E.C. Fisheries, A.R. Sunny, A review on effect of global climate change on seaweed and seagrass and seagrass, (2017).
[91] T.B. Suzuki, The state of British Columbia coastal communities in 2015, 2015.
[92] L. V Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS One. 11 (2016) e0145285. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0145285.
[93] L.S.L. Teh, W.W.L. Cheung, U.R. Sumaila, Scenarios for investigating the future of Canada’s oceans and marine fisheries under environmental and socioeconomic change, Reg. Environ. Chang. (2016). doi:10.1007/s10113-016-1081-5.
[94] K. Lynn, J. Daigle, J. Hoffman, F. Lake, N. Michelle, D. Ranco, et al., The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods, Clim. Change. 120 (2013) 545–556. doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0736-1.
[95] N.J. Muñoz, A.P. Farrell, J.W. Heath, B.D. Neff, Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon challenged by climate change, Nat. Clim. Chang. 5 (2014) 163–166. doi:10.1038/nclimate2473.
[96] M. Healey, The cumulative impacts of climate change on Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) and implications for management, Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 68 (2011) 718–737. doi:10.1139/F11-010.
[97] E.G. Martins, S.G. Hinch, D.A. Patterson, M.J. Hague, S.J. Cooke, K.M. Miller, et al., Effects of river temperature and climate warming on stock-specific survival of adult migrating Fraser River sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), Glob. Chang. Biol. 17 (2011) 99–114. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02241.x.
[98] L.G. Crozier, A.P. Hendry, P.W. Lawson, T.P. Quinn, N.J. Mantua, J. Battin, et al., Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon, Evol. Appl. 1 (2008) 252–270. doi:10.1111/j.1752-4571.2008.00033.x.
[99] F. Gazeau, L.M. Parker, S. Comeau, J.P. Gattuso, W. a. O’Connor, S. Martin, et al., Impacts of ocean acidification on marine shelled molluscs, Mar. Biol. 160 (2013) 2207–2245. doi:10.1007/s00227-013-2219-3.
[100] J.A. Ekstrom, L. Suatoni, S.R. Cooley, L.H. Pendleton, G.G. Waldbusser, J.E. Cinner, et al., Vulnerability and adaptation of US shellfisheries to ocean acidification, Nat. Clim. Chang. 5 (2015) 207–214. doi:10.1038/nclimate2508.
[101] S. Cooley, H.L. Kite-Powell, S.C. Doney, Ocean Acidification’ s Potential to Alter Global Marine Ecosystem Services, Oceanography. 22 (2009) 172–181.
[102] C. Linnitt, The Strait Of Georgia Is Turning To Acid, New Research Shows, Huffingt. Post. (2014). http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/carol-linnitt/the-strait-of-georgia-turning-to-acid_b_6084864.html (accessed December 11, 2017).
[103] T.B.S.E. Foundation, The State of British Columbia Coastal Communities in 2017, 2017.
[104] S.B. Henderson, V. Wan, T. Kosatsky, Differences in heat-related mortality across four ecological regions with diverse urban, rural, and remote populations in British Columbia, Canada, Health Place. 23 (2013) 48–53.
[105] F.J. Warren, D.S. Lemmen, Synthesis – Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation, Ottawa, ON, 2014.
[106] C. for I.E. Resources, How climate change uniquely impacts the physical, social, and cultural aspects of First Nations, 2006.
[107] D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296.
[108] P. Withey, Lantz, V. A., T.O. Ochuodho, Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach, Appl. Econ. 48 (2016) 59–71.
[109] P.L. Barnard, A.D. Short, M.D. Harley, K.D. Splinter, S. Vitousek, I.L. Turner, et al., Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation, Nat. Geosci. 8 (2015) 801–808. doi:10.1038/NGEO2539.
[110] J. Andrey, K. Palko, Introduction, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Clim. Risks Adapt. Pract. Can. Transp. Sect. 2016, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 2–10.
[111] V. Savo, C. Morton, D. Lepofsky, Impacts of climate change for coastal fishers and implications for fisheries, Fish Fish. (2017). doi:10.1111/faf.12212.
[112] B. Government, Adaptation & Climate Impacts, (2017). https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/adaptation (accessed December 10, 2017).
[113] C. Flood, H. Land, BC Ministry of Environment Climate Change Adaption Guidelines for Sea Dikes and Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use, (2011).
[114] M. Oppenheimer, C.M. Little, R.M. Cooke, Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change, Nat. Clim. Chang. 6 (2016) 445–451. doi:10.1038/nclimate2959.
[115] W.W.L. Cheung, M.C. Jones, G. Reygondeau, C.A. Stock, V.W.Y. Lam, T.L. Frölicher, Structural uncertainty in projecting global fisheries catches under climate change, Ecol. Modell. 325 (2016) 57–66. doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.12.018.
[116] E.P. Salathé, P.W. Mote, M.W. Wiley, Review of scenario selection and downscaling methods for the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology in the United States pacific northwest, Int. J. Climatol. 27 (2007) 1611–1621. doi:10.1002/joc.1540.
[117] A. Hamann, T. Wang, Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem and tree species distribution in British Columbia., Ecology. 87 (2006) 2773–86. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17168022.
[118] MEOPAR., Summary: Maritime Transportation Disruption: An Integrated Assessment for Coastal Community Resilience, (2017).
[119] G.E. Gillespie, T.C. Norgard, E.D. Anderson, D.R. Haggarty, A.C. Phillips, Distribution and Biological Characteristics of European Green Crab , Carcinus maenas , in British Columbia , 2006 – 2013 Canadian Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 3120, 2015.
[120] C. Clarke Murray, H. Gartner, E.J. Gregr, K. Chan, E. Pakhomov, T.W. Therriault, Spatial distribution of marine invasive species: Environmental, demographic and vector drivers, Divers. Distrib. 20 (2014) 824–836. doi:10.1111/ddi.12215.
[121] B. Government, Preparing for Climate Change: British Columbia’s Adaptation Strategy, (2010).
[122] W.E. Morrison, V. Termini, A Review of Potential Approaches for Managing Marine Fisheries in a Changing Climate, (2016).
[123] D.R. Armitage, R. Plummer, Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance, 2010. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-12194-4.
[124] M.G. Reid, C. Hamilton, S.K. Reid, C. Hill, N. Turner, C.R. Picard, et al., Indigenous climate change adaptation planning using a values-focused approach: A case study with the Gitga’at Nation, J. Ethnobiol. 34 (2014) 401–424.
[125] I.M. Picketts, A.T. Werner, T.Q. Murdock, J. Curry, S.J. Déry, D. Dyer, Planning for climate change adaptation: Lessons learned from a community-based workshop, Environ. Sci. Policy. 17 (2012) 82–93. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.12.011.
[126] J. Jackley, L. Gardner, A.F. Djunaedi, A.K. Salomon, Ancient clam gardens, traditional management portfolios, and the resilience of coupled human-ocean systems, Ecol. Soc. 21 (2016) 20. doi:10.5751/ES-08747-210420.
[127] E. Pinkerton, E. Angel, N. Ladell, P. Williams, M. Nicolson, J. Thorkelson, et al., Local and regional strategies for rebuilding fisheries management institutions in coastal British Columbia: What components of comanagement are most critical?, Ecol. Soc. 19 (2014). doi:10.5751/ES-06489-190272.
[128] J.E. Johnson, D.J. Welch, Marine Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate: A Review of Vulnerability and Future Options, Rev. Fish. Sci. 18 (2009) 106–124. doi:10.1080/10641260903434557.
[129] K. Miller, A. Charles, M. Barange, K. Brander, V.F. Gallucci, M.A. Gasalla, et al., Climate change, uncertainty, and resilient fisheries: Institutional responses through integrative science, Prog. Oceanogr. 87 (2010) 338–346. doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2010.09.014.
[130] M.L. Pinsky, N.J. Mantua., Emerging adaptation approaches for climate-ready fisheries management, Oceanography. 27 (2014) 17–29.
[131] W.N. Adger, N.W. Arnell, E.L. Tompkins, Successful adaptation to climate change across scales, Glob. Environ. Chang. 15 (2005) 77–86. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.005.
[132] M. Pelling, C. High, Understanding adaptation: What can social capital offer assessments of adaptive capacity?, Glob. Environ. Chang. 15 (2005) 308–319. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2005.02.001.
[133] M. Pelling, C. High, J. Dearing, D. Smith, Shadow spaces for social learning: A relational understanding of adaptive capacity to climate change within organisations, Environ. Plan. A. 40 (2008) 867–884. doi:10.1068/a39148.
[134] J.J. Green, D.A. Gill, A.M. Kleiner, From Vulnerability to Resiliency: Assessing Impacts and Responses to Disaster, South. Rural Sociol. 21 (2006) 89–99.
[135] P.R. Berke, R. Chuenpagdee, K. Juntarashote, S. (2008). Chang, Human-ecological dimensions of disaster resiliency in Thailand: social capital and aid delivery., J. Environ. Plan. Manag. 51 (2008) 303–317. doi:10.1080/09640560701864993.
[136] D.W.A. Murphy, Theorizing climate change, (im)mobility and socio-ecological systems resilience in low-elevation coastal zones, Clim. Dev. (2014) 1–18. doi:http://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2014.953904.
[137] M. Pelling, What determines vulnerability to floods; a case study in Georgetown, Guyana, Environ. Urban. 9 (1997) 203–226. doi:10.1177/095624789700900116.
[138] S.L. Cutter, L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate, et al., A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Glob. Environ. Chang. 18 (2008) 598–606. doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.07.013.
[139] J.R.A. Butler, R.M. Wise, T.D. Skewes, E.L. Bohensky, N. Peterson, W. Suadnya, et al., Integrating Top-Down and Bottom-Up Adaptation Planning to Build Adaptive Capacity: A Structured Learning Approach, Coast. Manag. 43 (2015) 346–364. doi:10.1080/08920753.2015.1046802.
[140] C.K. Whitney, N.J. Bennett, N.C. Ban, E.H. Allison, D. Armitage, J.L. Blythe, et al., Adaptive capacity: From assessment to action in coastal social-ecological systems, Ecol. Soc. 22 (2017). doi:10.5751/ES-09325-220222.
[141] J. Horne, WSANEC: Emerging Land or Emerging People., Arbutus Rev. 3 (2012) 6–19. http://journals.uvic.ca/index.php/arbutus/article/view/11639.
[142] R.J.T. Klein, R.J. Nicholls, F. Thomalla, Resilience to natural hazards: How useful is this concept?, Glob. Environ. Chang. Part B Environ. Hazards. 5 (2003) 1–11. doi:http://doi.org/10.1016/j.hazards.2004.02.001.
[143] N.C. Ban, H.M. Alidina, J.A. Ardron, Cumulative impact mapping: Advances, relevance and limitations to marine management and conservation, using Canada’s Pacific waters as a case study, Mar. Policy. 34 (2010) 876–886. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2010.01.010.
[144] B.S. Halpern, K.L. McLeod, A.A. Rosenberg, L.B. Crowder, Managing for cumulative impacts in ecosystem-based management through ocean zoning, Ocean Coast. Manag. 51 (2008) 203–211. doi:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2007.08.002.
[145] C. Clarke, S. Agbayani, N.C. Ban, Cumulative effects of planned industrial development and climate change on marine ecosystems, Glob. Ecol. Conserv. 4 (2015) 110–116. doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2015.06.003.
[146] C. Clarke, S. Agbayani, H.M. Alidina, N.C. Ban, Advancing marine cumulative effects mapping : An update in Canada’ s Pacific waters, Mar. Policy. 58 (2015) 71–77. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.04.003.
[147] N.E. Heller, E.S. Zavaleta, Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations, Biol. Conserv. 142 (2008) 14–32. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2008.10.006.
[148] K.R. Jones, J.E.M. Watson, H.P. Possingham, C.J. Klein, Incorporating climate change into spatial conservation prioritisation: A review, Biol. Conserv. 194 (2016) 121–130. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2015.12.008.
[149] M.R. Clark, F. Althaus, T.A. Schlacher, A. Williams, D.A. Bowden, A.A. Rowden, The evolving and increasing need for climate change research on the oceans, ICES J. Mar. Sci. 73 (2016) 1267–1271.
[150] S.S. Mamauag, P.M. Aliño, R.J.S. Martinez, R.N. Muallil, M.V.A. Doctor, E.C. Dizon, et al., A framework for vulnerability assessment of coastal fisheries ecosystems to climate change—Tool for understanding resilience of fisheries (VA–TURF), Fish. Res. 147 (2013) 381–393. doi:10.1016/j.fishres.2013.07.007.
[151] C.M. Roberts, B.C. O’Leary, D.J. McCauley, P.M. Cury, C.M. Duarte, J. Lubchenco, et al., Marine reserves can mitigate and promote adaptation to climate change, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 114 (2017) 201701262. doi:10.1073/pnas.1701262114.
[152] E. McLeod, R. Salm, A. Green, J. Almany, Designing marine protected area networks to address the impacts of climate change, Front. Ecol. Environ. 7 (2009) 362–370. doi:10.1890/070211.
[153] CEC, North American Marine Protected Area Rapid Vulnerability Assessment Tool, Montreal, Canada, 2017.
[154] L.V. Weatherdon, Scenarios for coastal First Nations’ fisheries under climate change: impacts, resilience and adaptation potential, University of British Columbia, 2014.
[155] S.D. Wesche, Responding to change in a northern aboriginal community (Fort Resolution, NWT, Canada): Linking social and ecological perspectives., 2011. http://ezproxy.net.ucf.edu/login?url=http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&db=psyh&AN=2011-99030-587&site=ehost-live.
[156] A.L. Wood, J.R. a Butler, M. Sheaves, J. Wani, Sport fisheries: Opportunities and challenges for diversifying coastal livelihoods in the Pacific, Mar. Policy. 42 (2013) 305–314. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2013.03.005.
[157] M. Nursey-Bray, B. Blackwell, B. Brooks, M.L. Campbell, L. Goldsworthy, H. Pateman, et al., Vulnerabilities and adaptation of ports to climate change, J. Environ. Plan. Manag. 56 (2013) 1021–1045. doi:10.1080/09640568.2012.716363.
[158] M. Andrachuk, B. Smit, Community-based vulnerability assessment of Tuktoyaktuk, NWT, Canada to environmental and socio-economic changes, Reg. Environ. Chang. 12 (2012) 867–885. doi:10.1007/s10113-012-0299-0.
[159] N. Chen, P. Graham, Climate Change as a Survival Strategy: Soft Infrastructure for Urban Resilience and Adaptive Capacity in Australia’s Coastal Zones, in: Resilient Cities, 2011: pp. 111–121. doi:10.1007/978-94-007-0785-6.
[160] R.J. Beamish, Impacts of Climate and Climate Change on the Key Species in the Fisheries in the North Pacific, PICES. Sci. Rep. (2008) 246.
[161] S.M. Maxwell, E.L. Hazen, R.L. Lewison, D.C. Dunn, H. Bailey, S.J. Bograd, et al., Dynamic ocean management: Defining and conceptualizing real-time management of the ocean, Mar. Policy. 58 (2015) 42–50. doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2015.03.014.
[162] M. Mills, R. Weeks, R.L. Pressey, M.G. Gleason, R.-L. Eisma-Osorio, A.T. Lombard, et al., Real-world progress in overcoming the challenges of adaptive spatial planning in marine protected areas, Biol. Conserv. 181 (2015) 54–63. doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2014.10.028.
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Average air temperatures may increase by 1.8°C (1.3°C to 2.7°C) by 2050 and 2.7°C (1.7°C to 4.5°C) by 20801, 2, 3; and average temperatures may reach ~7.8°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.6°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-21004*; Growing degree days: +283 (+179 to +429) 2050 and +468 (+262 to +769) by 20801; Frost free days: +20(+12 to +29) by 2050 and +30 (+16 to +48) by 20801; Winter minimum temperatures in northern BC may increase by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures may increase by 3–4°C. Increases in frost-free periods, growing-degree days, and frequency of extremely warm days [5]. | High | Threats to: Potential increases in: |    | High |
| Precipitation | Increasing average annual precipitation by 6% (2% to 12%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, 10% decrease in summer1,2*; up to ~18% more precipitation (low emissions, RCP2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Declining winter snowfall by -10% (-17% to +2%) by 2050 and -12% (-26% to -1%) by 20801; Winter precipitation increase by 10-25%, summer precipitation increase by 20% by 20508; overall precipitation increase in fall, winter and spring seasons [2], [3], [9], [10], [11]. | High | Threats to: Increased: Changing salinity levels and stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current [12]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem dynamics, and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods and food availability [2]. |  | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Rising sea levels from 80cm to 120cm [13] or from 20cm to 130cm [3] by 2100; Increases by ~25.1cm in Prince Rupert; ~9.3cm in Queen Charlotte; ~8.4cm in Bella Bella; ~13.9cm in Winter Harbour by 2100 [8]; Moderate rate of sea level rise until 2025, and rapid rate from 2025 up to 2100. May be counteracted by vertical land movement (uplift) by 1 and 3 mm/yr, but not enough to moderate SLR rates [14]. | High | Threats to: Increased coastal flooding and erosion risks on communities [10], [12], [15], [16], [17]; Economic impacts on: | | |
| Sea Surface Temperature | Average sea surface temperatures may reach ~11.4°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-21004; Increases between 0.5°C and 2.0°C and average temperatures to be around 10-14°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline12. | High | Threats to: Increased incidence of marine diseases, harmful algal blooms and invasive species [15], [23], [24]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [15], [19]. | | High |
| Ocean Acidification | Average ~7.96 ph level with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph level with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Overall decreasing pH levels [19], [20], [21]. | High | Threats to: Economic, social and cultural impacts of alterations to habitat and fishery industry [19], [20], [22]. | | High |
| Oxygenation | Declining dissolved oxygen levels for the Northeast Pacific Ocean [6], [11], [19]. | High | Threats to: Impacts on the ecosystem and habitat of groundfish [15], [22], [23]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [11], [19], [22]. | | High |
| Streamflow | Increases in spring flow with slight increases in during summer by 2080 [8], [15]; Stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current, stronger flows in Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait and Dixon entrance [12]; Decreased summer flows in glacier and snowmelt dominated watersheds [9], [15]. | High | Threats to: Increased and periodic water scarcity during the summer [9]. | | High |
| Sea Surface Salinity | Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1.25% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.2% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [12]. | High | Threats to: Reduction in total ecosystem biomass [19]. Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [19]. |    | High |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | More intense and more frequent winter storms, surges and waves [2], [26]; Increases in damaging extreme high-water events [15]; Increases in coastal wind strength in summer [6]. | High | Threats to: Increase in: Alterations in the timing or strength of the spring weather transition, coastal currents and upwell strength and timing [6]. | | Medium |
| General | Increasing occurrence and frequency of climate impacts [2], [15], [23], [24], [28]. | High | Threats to: 21% decline in Sockeye salmon, 10% decline in Chum salmon, 15% decline in Sable fish stocks, and 1.33$, 0.77$ and 0.65$ increase per pound, respectively [22]; 15.0% to 20.8% decline in commercially and culturally important fisheries species relative abundance by 2050 [25]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [22], [25]. | | High |
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
* Data specific to MaPP region
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Average air temperatures may increase by 1.5°C (0.9°C to 2.3°C) by 2050 and 2.5°C (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2080 [1], [2] and average air temperatures could reach as much as ~8.5°C (low emissions, RCP2.6) to ~12°C (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 313 (+189 to +478) more growing degree days by 2050 and 521 (+270 to +832) more growing degree days by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost-free days: 23 (+13 to +35) more frost free days by 2050 and 35 more (+19 to +52) by 2080 [1]. | High | Threats to: Potential positive benefits to tourism due to longer summers [2],[7]. |  | Low |
| Precipitation | Average annual precipitation may increase by 6% (-1% to 10%) by 2050 and 8% (1% to 16%) by 2080 [1]; ~10% decrease in summer [2]; up ~15% more (low emissions RCP2.6) and ~21% (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 (relative to 1961-1990 [3]); Winter snowfall may decrease by -25% (-42% to -8%) by 2050 and -33% (-59% to -13%) by 2080 [1]; Stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current [8]. | High | Threats to fish stocks due to lower stream flows and decreased summer precipitation [4]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem dynamics, habitats and altered current patterns [2], [8]. | | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Sea level may rise from 0.6m to 0.9m by 2100 [8]. | High | Threats to: | | High |
| Sea Surface Temperature | Average sea surface temperature to be ~11°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increasing sea surface temperature by ~1.8°C and average temperature to be ~11-13°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [8]. | High | Threats and changes to: Potential positive effect on tourism due to warm water temperatures [7]; Poleward species range shifts at a rate of 10-18 km/decade [12] to 30.1 ± 2.34 (S.E.) km per decade from 2000 to 2050 [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fish species and abundance [7]. | | Medium |
| Ocean Acidification | Average ~7.95 pH with RCP 2.6 and ~7.68 pH unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 [3]; Decreasing ocean pH levels (increasing ocean acidification) [7]. | Medium | Threats to: | | Medium |
| Oxygenation | Declining dissolved oxygen levels [7]. | Low | Threats to: | | High |
| Streamflow | |||||
| Sea Surface Salinity | Likely declining sea surface salinity by ~1.5% with RCP 2.6 and ~3% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline3; Declining sea surface salinity by ~1% by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline8, ~9% decrease in sea surface salinity at the mouth of the Homathko River [8], ~2.5% increase in sea salinity (~0.6 increase in psu unit) at Johnstone Strait by Port Neville [8]. | High | Threats to: | | Low |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | Increasing frequency and intensity of storms and storm surge, flooding as mean sea level increases [2], [4], [7]; estimated 75.3cm storm surge height for a 100-year storm surge event [13]. | High | Threats to: | | Low |
| General | Increasing intensity of cumulative climate impacts [7], [9], [10]. | High | Threats to Northward shift in species range and abundance [12]; Health and economic implications for coastal communities due to altered access to traditional foods [6], [7], [12]. | | Low |
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Increasing average air temperatures by 1.6°C (0.9°C to 2.4°C) by 2050 and 2.4°C (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; Average air temperatures may reach between ~7°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +287 (+171 to +425) by 2050 and +466 (+255 to +747) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +27(+13 to +39) by 2050 and +38 (+20 to +60) by 2080 [1]; Increasing winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C by 2080 [4]. | High | Threats to: Potential benefits to tourism due to longer warm seasons [2]; Potential increases in energy requirements for heating and cooling [5]. | | Medium |
| Precipitation | Increasing average annual precipitation by 5% (0% to 11%) by 2050 and 9% (3% to 18%) by 2080, ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -23% (-40% to -6%) by 2050 and -30% (-60% to -12%) by 2080 [1]; Increasing average precipitation by ~15% with RCP 2.6 and ~29% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]. | High | Threats on fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [6]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional food availability [2]. | | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Sea level rise from 0.75m to a little over 1m. Areas in the northern parts to experience a greater increase; ~1m [7]. | Low | Threats to: Reduced access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5]. | | Low |
| Sea Surface Temperature | Average sea surface temperature to be ~11°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increases in sea surface temperature by ~1.9°C and average temperature to be ~11-12.5°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6]. | High | Threats on fisheries industry [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fishery species abundance and distribution [5], [9]. | | Medium |
| Ocean Acidification | Average ~7.95 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.68 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decrease in pH levels will increase ocean acidity [5]. | Medium | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5], [8]. | | Medium |
| Oxygenation | Decreases in dissolved oxygen levels [5]. | Low | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5]. | | Medium |
| Streamflow | |||||
| Sea Surface Salinity | Declining sea surface salinity by ~1.5% with RCP 2.6 and ~3% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Declining sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.8 increase in psu unit) around Penrose Island [6], ~1% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.5 increase in psu unit) around Klemtu to Butedale [6]. | High | Impacts on: Economic impacts on communities associated with impacts on fisheries [5], [9]. | | High |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5]. | Medium | Threats to: Impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism and fisheries [5]. | | Medium |
| General | Increasing intensity of cumulative climate impacts [2], [8]. | High | Threats to: Northward shift in species range and abundance [9]. | | High |
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Average air temperature may increase by 1.7°C (1.1°C to 2.5°C) by 2050 and 2.6°C (1.5°C to 4.3°C) by 20801, 2; and average temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 237 (+150 to +369) growing degree days by 2050 and +362 (+213 to +700) by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost free days: +24 (+13 to +36) frost free days by 2050 and +37 (+18 to +58) by 2080 [1]; Higher winter minimum temperatures (4–9°C higher) and summer maximum temperatures (3–4°C higher) by 2080 [4]. | High | Higher energy requirements for heating and cooling [5]; Lower water availability [2]. | | Medium |
| Precipitation | Annual precipitation may increase by 7% (3% to 12%) by 2050 and 12% (7% to 22%) by 2080, in all seasons except summer [1], [2]; up to ~18% more precipitation with low emissions (RCP2.6) and ~25% more with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3], [6]; Winter snowfall may decrease by -10% (-18% to +5%) by 2050 and -11% (-32% to -1%) by 2080 [1]; | High | Threats to: | | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Rising sea levels are likely: 0.6m to 1.2m. Areas in the northern parts may experience a greater increase ~1.2m6,7. | Medium | Threats to: Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8]. | | Medium |
| Sea Surface Temperature | Increases in sea surface temperatures by ~2°C and average temperatures to be ~10-11.5°C by 2065-20786; ~2.5°C increase in sea surface temperatures at the east of Dundas Islands [6]. | High | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | | Medium |
| Ocean Acidification | Decreasing in pH levels leading to ocean acidification [5]. | Low | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5], [9]. | | Medium |
| Oxygenation | Declining dissolved oxygen levels [5]. | Low | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | | Medium |
| Streamflow | |||||
| Sea Surface Salinity | Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~1.4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.4 increase in psu unit) around at the east of Dundas Islands [6], ~8% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Larcom Island [6], ~5% increase in sea surface salinity (~1.2 increase in psu unit) north east of Gil Island [6]. | High | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | | Medium |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5]. | Medium | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8]. | | High |
| General | Climate change effects are expected to become even more dramatic in coming years [9]. | High | Threats to: Northward shift in species range and abundance [10]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities due to salmon running later, berries ready earlier, and unpredictable weather observations [10], [11]. | | Medium |
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Average air temperatures may increase by 1.4°C (0.8°C to 2.2°C) by 2050 and 2.2°C (1.1°C to 3.5°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; South Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~8.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~12°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +317 (+182 to +506) by 2050 and +514 (+264 to +855) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +22 (+13 to +31) by 2050 and +32 (+18 to +46) by 2080 [1]; Increases in winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C [4]. | High | Threats to: Potential positive benefits to tourism due to warmer and longer summer season [2]. | | High |
| Precipitation | Increases in average annual precipitation by 7% (0% to 10%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, and ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -35% (-54% to -11%) by 2050 and -48% (-72% to -22%) by 2080 [1]; South Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~18% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~20% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~22% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]. | High | Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods [2]. | | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Extreme low projections of 0.1-0.31m, mean projections of 0.25-0.46m, extreme high projections of 0.95-1.16m [5]; Average sea level may increase by 0.7-1.32m. North and northwest coast may experience ~1.32m, northeast and the southwest coast may experience ~1-1.2m [6]. | Medium | Threats to: Ecological, economic, social and technological impacts and adaptation challenges [8]. | | Medium |
| Sea Surface Temperature | South Haida Gwaii: Average sea surface temperature to be ~11.75°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increasing sea surface temperature by up to 1.5°C in less than 100 years5; or by ~2.1°C compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9]; average temperature to be ~10.5-12.5°C by 2065-2078 [9]. | High | Potential positive benefits to seagrasses and the kelp species Macrocystisspp [5]; Impacts on a variety of marine species [5]. | + | High |
| Ocean Acidification | Decreasing ocean pH levels. South Haida Gwaii: Average ~7.96 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]. | High | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to impacts on aquaculture and potential impacts on fisheries [5], [8]. | | Medium |
| Oxygenation | Declining ocean oxygen levels [9]. | High | Impacts on: | | High |
| Streamflow | Changing timing of streamflow - earlier freshet, less snowpack, higher water volume earlier in spring [8]. | Low | Threats on salmon migration, spawning, and incubation [8]. | | Low |
| Sea Surface Salinity | South Haida Gwaii: Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.4% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decreasing sea surface salinity by less than 1% (~0.3 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9], ~5% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Masset Inlet [9]. | High | Impacts on: | | High |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | Stronger future storm events [2], [10] and increases in storm surge frequency [2]. | High | Threats to: | | High |
| General | Increasing intensity of cumulative climate change impacts [5]. | High | Threats to: Northward shift in species range and abundance [12]. | | High |
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
* Data specific to MaPP region
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
