Estimated Regional Impacts Associated with Climate Change Projections

Given the increasing rate of carbon emissions and the marginal success of global mitigation efforts, even higher rates of climate changes are expected in the future. Indeed, many of the impacts of climate change, including sea level rise, ocean temperature, and ocean acidification are likely to be worse than current projections [72]. Information on climate change projections, sectoral impacts, associated vulnerabilities and risks, and potential adaptation actions aim to inform policies that will ensure resilient communities and regions. A critical part of this process, therefore, is to include information on the social and economic status of the regions and communities. For example, information on climate change effects on the fisheries sector would be more meaningful if human dependencies on the fisheries sector is also known and included in vulnerability and risk analyses and recommendations of adaptation actions.

In the MaPP region, there is limited information on vulnerability and risk of predicted climate changes for human communities and sectors. While there is some information on exposure to climate impacts, data on adaptive capacity and sensitivity are largely not available across the region at this time. As such, based on the available literature and ongoing research, we comment on predicted climate change impacts from the climate change projections described in the previous section, and on probable exposure and risk to four key sectors: ecosystems, First Nations and non-First Nations communities, fisheries and aquaculture, and marine infrastructure. This information is provided at the MaPP regional scale and, where possible, further details are provided at the sub-regional scale. The MaPP regional level information is always relevant for the sub-regions, just at a coarse scale due to the quality of available data.

Long, wet, and green sea grass close up.
Zostera sea grass | Photo by Joanna Smith
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