Lack of regionally downscaled projections and vulnerability assessments

Statistical downscaling can be used to map coarse-scale global climate model outputs to finer scale (regional or local) detail, using the empirical relationship between observed climatology at the finer resolution, and coarse-scale model fields. Regional climate models can also produce local projections, which may better represent the local responses to climate change [116]. There is a lack of reliable downscaled projections or regional climate modeled data for most climate impacts in the marine environment of BC, and within the MaPP region. Much of the climate impacts work within BC is focused on terrestrial impacts (e.g. [117]; AdaptTree), rather than marine and coastal impacts, and as such is of more limited applicability to the marine and coastal focus of the MaPP region (T. Murdoch, PCIC, pers. comm. July 2017). Regional climate vulnerabilities are also unknown for most sectors within BC. Fisheries and Oceans Canada has an ongoing project to model climate change vulnerabilities in some fisheries (Karen Hunter, pers. comm. July 2017.), with early results expected within the next year. Other work is focused on modeling the impacts of warming river temperatures on juvenile salmon, with results forthcoming (K. Hunter, DFO, pers. comm. July 2017).

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