North Vancouver Island – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Impacts Summary	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperatures may increase by 1.4°C (0.8°C to 2.2°C) by 2050 and 2.2°C (1.1°C to 3.5°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; South Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~8.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~12°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +317 (+182 to +506) by 2050 and +514 (+264 to +855) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +22 (+13 to +31) by 2050 and +32 (+18 to +46) by 2080 [1]; Increases in winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C [4].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2]; Potential positive benefits to tourism due to warmer and longer summer season [2].		High
Precipitation	Increases in average annual precipitation by 7% (0% to 10%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, and ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -35% (-54% to -11%) by 2050 and -48% (-72% to -22%) by 2080 [1]; South Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~18% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~20% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~22% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods [2].		High
Sea Level Rise	Extreme low projections of 0.1-0.31m, mean projections of 0.25-0.46m, extreme high projections of 0.95-1.16m [5]; Average sea level may increase by 0.7-1.32m. North and northwest coast may experience ~1.32m, northeast and the southwest coast may experience ~1-1.2m [6].	Medium	Threats to: cultural and historic sites [6], coastal development and settlements due to flooding and erosion [7], [8], marine infrastructure due to flooding and erosion [7], [8], ecosystem health, resilience and productivity as well as coastal habitats, loss of wetlands and pollution [8]; Ecological, economic, social and technological impacts and adaptation challenges [8].		Medium
Sea Surface Temperature	South Haida Gwaii: Average sea surface temperature to be ~11.75°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increasing sea surface temperature by up to 1.5°C in less than 100 years5; or by ~2.1°C compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9]; average temperature to be ~10.5-12.5°C by 2065-2078 [9].	High	Potential positive benefits to seagrasses and the kelp species Macrocystisspp [5]; Impacts on a variety of marine species [5].	+	High
Ocean Acidification	Decreasing ocean pH levels. South Haida Gwaii: Average ~7.96 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Threats to: calcifying organisms [5], [8], aquaculture industry [5], [8], larger scale ecosystem effects [5], [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to impacts on aquaculture and potential impacts on fisheries [5], [8].		Medium
Oxygenation	Declining ocean oxygen levels [9].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats due to decreased salinity levels [5], fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [9].		High
Streamflow	Changing timing of streamflow - earlier freshet, less snowpack, higher water volume earlier in spring [8].	Low	Threats on salmon migration, spawning, and incubation [8].		Low
Sea Surface Salinity	South Haida Gwaii: Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.4% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decreasing sea surface salinity by less than 1% (~0.3 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9], ~5% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Masset Inlet [9].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats due to decreased salinity levels [5], fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [9].		High
Winds, Waves and Storms	Stronger future storm events [2], [10] and increases in storm surge frequency [2].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], coastal development and settlements due to flooding and erosion [2], [8], marine infrastructure and flood protection infrastructure due to severe weather events and associated wave and erosion damage [2], [7], [8], critical infrastructure such as utility lines, power, communications transmissions, and access to grocery and other supplies [8], [11], marine and land transportation lanes due to severe weather events [8], [11].		High
General	Increasing intensity of cumulative climate change impacts [5].	High	Threats to: species abundance and distribution [12], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [12], salmon catch potential [12], access to traditional foods [5], [12]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [12].		High

Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

1. PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Skeena-Queen Charlotte 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
2. PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
3. [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
4. D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
5. T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
6. J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
7. D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
8. MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
9. M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
10. I.J. Walker, J.V. Barrie, Geomorphology and sea-level rise on one of Canada’s most sensitive coasts: Northeast Graham Island, British Columbia, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue. 39:1 (2006) 220–226. doi:10.2307/25741565.
11. I.J. Walker, R. Sydneysmith, British Columbia, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, E. Bush (Eds.), From Impacts to Adaptation Canada in a Changing Climate, 2008: pp. 1–58.
12. L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Impacts Summary	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperature may increase by 1.7°C (1.1°C to 2.5°C) by 2050 and 2.6°C (1.5°C to 4.3°C) by 20801, 2; and average temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 237 (+150 to +369) growing degree days by 2050 and +362 (+213 to +700) by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost free days: +24 (+13 to +36) frost free days by 2050 and +37 (+18 to +58) by 2080 [1]; Higher winter minimum temperatures (4–9°C higher) and summer maximum temperatures (3–4°C higher) by 2080 [4].	High	Higher energy requirements for heating and cooling [5]; Lower water availability [2].		Medium
Precipitation	Annual precipitation may increase by 7% (3% to 12%) by 2050 and 12% (7% to 22%) by 2080, in all seasons except summer [1], [2]; up to ~18% more precipitation with low emissions (RCP2.6) and ~25% more with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3], [6]; Winter snowfall may decrease by -10% (-18% to +5%) by 2050 and -11% (-32% to -1%) by 2080 [1];	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], [6], food security [5], slope stability [2], community safety due to increased risk of landslides [2]; Increases in: fresh water input into oceans, associated impacts on fisheries 6, freeze-thaw processes [2].		High
Sea Level Rise	Rising sea levels are likely: 0.6m to 1.2m. Areas in the northern parts may experience a greater increase ~1.2m6,7.	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], [6], cultural and heritage resources [5], [7], food security and traditional food sources [5], [7], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5], access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8].		Medium
Sea Surface Temperature	Increases in sea surface temperatures by ~2°C and average temperatures to be ~10-11.5°C by 2065-20786; ~2.5°C increase in sea surface temperatures at the east of Dundas Islands [6].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries industry [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].		Medium
Ocean Acidification	Decreasing in pH levels leading to ocean acidification [5].	Low	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], [9], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], calcifying organisms [5], [9], aquaculture industry5,9, commercial harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5], [9].		Medium
Oxygenation	Declining dissolved oxygen levels [5].	Low	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], habitat range of species that tolerate low oxygen habitats [9]; commercial harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].		Medium
Streamflow
Sea Surface Salinity	Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~1.4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.4 increase in psu unit) around at the east of Dundas Islands [6], ~8% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Larcom Island [6], ~5% increase in sea surface salinity (~1.2 increase in psu unit) north east of Gil Island [6].	High	Threats to: species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries industry [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].		Medium
Winds, Waves and Storms	Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5].	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8].		High
General	Climate change effects are expected to become even more dramatic in coming years [9].	High	Threats to: species abundance and distribution [10], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [10], salmon catch potential [10], access to traditional foods [5], [10]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [10]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities due to salmon running later, berries ready earlier, and unpredictable weather observations [10], [11].		Medium

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative

Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

1. PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Kitimat-Stikine 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
2. PCIC, Climate summary for Skeena Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-Skeena.pdf
3. [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
4. D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
5. MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
6. M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
7. J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
8. D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
9. T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
10. L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
11. R. Anderson, Kitkatla: Climate Change and Adaptations & Diet and Diabetes – Final Fieldwork Report, Forests and Oceans for the Future, University of British Columbia, 2005.

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Impacts Summary	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Increasing average air temperatures by 1.6°C (0.9°C to 2.4°C) by 2050 and 2.4°C (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; Average air temperatures may reach between ~7°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +287 (+171 to +425) by 2050 and +466 (+255 to +747) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +27(+13 to +39) by 2050 and +38 (+20 to +60) by 2080 [1]; Increasing winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C by 2080 [4].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2]; Potential benefits to tourism due to longer warm seasons [2]; Potential increases in energy requirements for heating and cooling [5].		Medium
Precipitation	Increasing average annual precipitation by 5% (0% to 11%) by 2050 and 9% (3% to 18%) by 2080, ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -23% (-40% to -6%) by 2050 and -30% (-60% to -12%) by 2080 [1]; Increasing average precipitation by ~15% with RCP 2.6 and ~29% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Threats on fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [6]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional food availability [2].		High
Sea Level Rise	Sea level rise from 0.75m to a little over 1m. Areas in the northern parts to experience a greater increase; ~1m [7].	Low	Threats to: cultural and heritage resources and traditional food sources [5], [7], water quality and availability [5], fisheries industry [5], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5]; Reduced access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5].		Low
Sea Surface Temperature	Average sea surface temperature to be ~11°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increases in sea surface temperature by ~1.9°C and average temperature to be ~11-12.5°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6].	High	Threats on fisheries industry [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fishery species abundance and distribution [5], [9].		Medium
Ocean Acidification	Average ~7.95 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.68 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decrease in pH levels will increase ocean acidity [5].	Medium	Threats to: calcifying organisms [5], [8], aquaculture industry [5], [8], larger scale ecosystems [5], [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5], [8].		Medium
Oxygenation	Decreases in dissolved oxygen levels [5].	Low	Threats to: fisheries industry [5], the habitat range of species that tolerate low oxygen habitats [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5].		Medium
Streamflow
Sea Surface Salinity	Declining sea surface salinity by ~1.5% with RCP 2.6 and ~3% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Declining sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.8 increase in psu unit) around Penrose Island [6], ~1% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.5 increase in psu unit) around Klemtu to Butedale [6].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats [5], fisheries [6]; Economic impacts on communities associated with impacts on fisheries [5], [9].		High
Winds, Waves and Storms	Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5].	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], water quality and availability for communities [5], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5]; Impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism and fisheries [5].		Medium
General	Increasing intensity of cumulative climate impacts [2], [8].	High	Threats to: access to traditional foods [5], [9], biodiversity [8], species abundance and distribution [9], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [9], resource conservation due to ecosystem stress [5], tourism and wildlife viewing opportunities as species distribution and habitat change [5]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [9].		High

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative

Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

1. PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Central Coast 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
2. PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
3. [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
4. D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
5. MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
6. M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
7. J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
8. T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
9. L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.