North Coast – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts
Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Air Temperature | Average air temperature may increase by 1.7°C (1.1°C to 2.5°C) by 2050 and 2.6°C (1.5°C to 4.3°C) by 20801, 2; and average temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 237 (+150 to +369) growing degree days by 2050 and +362 (+213 to +700) by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost free days: +24 (+13 to +36) frost free days by 2050 and +37 (+18 to +58) by 2080 [1]; Higher winter minimum temperatures (4–9°C higher) and summer maximum temperatures (3–4°C higher) by 2080 [4]. | High | Higher energy requirements for heating and cooling [5]; Lower water availability [2]. | Medium | |
Precipitation | Annual precipitation may increase by 7% (3% to 12%) by 2050 and 12% (7% to 22%) by 2080, in all seasons except summer [1], [2]; up to ~18% more precipitation with low emissions (RCP2.6) and ~25% more with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3], [6]; Winter snowfall may decrease by -10% (-18% to +5%) by 2050 and -11% (-32% to -1%) by 2080 [1]; | High | Threats to: | High | |
Sea Level Rise | Rising sea levels are likely: 0.6m to 1.2m. Areas in the northern parts may experience a greater increase ~1.2m6,7. | Medium | Threats to: Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8]. | Medium | |
Sea Surface Temperature | Increases in sea surface temperatures by ~2°C and average temperatures to be ~10-11.5°C by 2065-20786; ~2.5°C increase in sea surface temperatures at the east of Dundas Islands [6]. | High | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | Medium | |
Ocean Acidification | Decreasing in pH levels leading to ocean acidification [5]. | Low | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5], [9]. | Medium | |
Oxygenation | Declining dissolved oxygen levels [5]. | Low | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | Medium | |
Streamflow | |||||
Sea Surface Salinity | Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~1.4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.4 increase in psu unit) around at the east of Dundas Islands [6], ~8% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Larcom Island [6], ~5% increase in sea surface salinity (~1.2 increase in psu unit) north east of Gil Island [6]. | High | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]. | Medium | |
Winds, Waves and Storms | Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5]. | Medium | Threats to: Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8]. | High | |
General | Climate change effects are expected to become even more dramatic in coming years [9]. | High | Threats to: Northward shift in species range and abundance [10]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities due to salmon running later, berries ready earlier, and unpredictable weather observations [10], [11]. | Medium |
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
- PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Kitimat-Stikine 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
- PCIC, Climate summary for Skeena Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-Skeena.pdf
- [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
- D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
- MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
- M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
- J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
- D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
- T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
- L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
- R. Anderson, Kitkatla: Climate Change and Adaptations & Diet and Diabetes – Final Fieldwork Report, Forests and Oceans for the Future, University of British Columbia, 2005.