MaPP Region – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts
| Climate Impact | Projected Changes | Evidence Quality | Sectoral Impacts | Impacts Summary | Evidence Quality |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Temperature | Average air temperatures may increase by 1.8°C (1.3°C to 2.7°C) by 2050 and 2.7°C (1.7°C to 4.5°C) by 20801, 2, 3; and average temperatures may reach ~7.8°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.6°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-21004*; Growing degree days: +283 (+179 to +429) 2050 and +468 (+262 to +769) by 20801; Frost free days: +20(+12 to +29) by 2050 and +30 (+16 to +48) by 20801; Winter minimum temperatures in northern BC may increase by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures may increase by 3–4°C. Increases in frost-free periods, growing-degree days, and frequency of extremely warm days [5]. | High | Threats to: Potential increases in: |    | High |
| Precipitation | Increasing average annual precipitation by 6% (2% to 12%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, 10% decrease in summer1,2*; up to ~18% more precipitation (low emissions, RCP2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Declining winter snowfall by -10% (-17% to +2%) by 2050 and -12% (-26% to -1%) by 20801; Winter precipitation increase by 10-25%, summer precipitation increase by 20% by 20508; overall precipitation increase in fall, winter and spring seasons [2], [3], [9], [10], [11]. | High | Threats to: Increased: Changing salinity levels and stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current [12]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem dynamics, and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods and food availability [2]. |  | High |
| Sea Level Rise | Rising sea levels from 80cm to 120cm [13] or from 20cm to 130cm [3] by 2100; Increases by ~25.1cm in Prince Rupert; ~9.3cm in Queen Charlotte; ~8.4cm in Bella Bella; ~13.9cm in Winter Harbour by 2100 [8]; Moderate rate of sea level rise until 2025, and rapid rate from 2025 up to 2100. May be counteracted by vertical land movement (uplift) by 1 and 3 mm/yr, but not enough to moderate SLR rates [14]. | High | Threats to: Increased coastal flooding and erosion risks on communities [10], [12], [15], [16], [17]; Economic impacts on: | | |
| Sea Surface Temperature | Average sea surface temperatures may reach ~11.4°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-21004; Increases between 0.5°C and 2.0°C and average temperatures to be around 10-14°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline12. | High | Threats to: Increased incidence of marine diseases, harmful algal blooms and invasive species [15], [23], [24]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [15], [19]. | | High |
| Ocean Acidification | Average ~7.96 ph level with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph level with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Overall decreasing pH levels [19], [20], [21]. | High | Threats to: Economic, social and cultural impacts of alterations to habitat and fishery industry [19], [20], [22]. | | High |
| Oxygenation | Declining dissolved oxygen levels for the Northeast Pacific Ocean [6], [11], [19]. | High | Threats to: Impacts on the ecosystem and habitat of groundfish [15], [22], [23]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [11], [19], [22]. | | High |
| Streamflow | Increases in spring flow with slight increases in during summer by 2080 [8], [15]; Stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current, stronger flows in Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait and Dixon entrance [12]; Decreased summer flows in glacier and snowmelt dominated watersheds [9], [15]. | High | Threats to: Increased and periodic water scarcity during the summer [9]. | | High |
| Sea Surface Salinity | Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1.25% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.2% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [12]. | High | Threats to: Reduction in total ecosystem biomass [19]. Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [19]. |    | High |
| Winds, Waves and Storms | More intense and more frequent winter storms, surges and waves [2], [26]; Increases in damaging extreme high-water events [15]; Increases in coastal wind strength in summer [6]. | High | Threats to: Increase in: Alterations in the timing or strength of the spring weather transition, coastal currents and upwell strength and timing [6]. | | Medium |
| General | Increasing occurrence and frequency of climate impacts [2], [15], [23], [24], [28]. | High | Threats to: 21% decline in Sockeye salmon, 10% decline in Chum salmon, 15% decline in Sable fish stocks, and 1.33$, 0.77$ and 0.65$ increase per pound, respectively [22]; 15.0% to 20.8% decline in commercially and culturally important fisheries species relative abundance by 2050 [25]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [22], [25]. | | High |
Ecosystems | Communities | Fisheries and Aquaculture | Marine Infrastructure |
* Data specific to MaPP region
α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative
- PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for British Columbia 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
- * PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
- P.W. Mote, E.P. Salathe Jr, Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic Change. 102 (2010) 29–50. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z.
- * [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
- D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
- K.L. Hunter, J. Wade, eds., Pacific Large Aquatic Basin Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Opportunities Assessment – Marine Species and Aquaculture, Can. Manuscr. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3049, 2015.
- S.B. Henderson, V. Wan, T. Kosatsky, Differences in heat-related mortality across four ecological regions with diverse urban, rural, and remote populations in British Columbia, Canada, Health Place. 23 (2013) 48–53.
- R.E. Thomson, B.D. Bornhold, S. Mazzotti, An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in coastal British Columbia, Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr.Ocean Sci. 260, 2008.
- N. Vadeboncoeur, Perspectives on Canada’s West Coast region, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James, C.S.L.M. Clarke (Eds.), Canadas Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2016: pp. 207–252.
- D. Nyland, J.R. Nodelman, British Columbia, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 66–103.
- T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
- M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
- B.D. Bornhold, Projected Sea Level Changes for British Columbia in the 21st Century, Victoria, BC, 2008.
- BCMoE, Climate Change Adaption Guidelines for Sea Dikes and Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use – Guidelines for Management of Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use, 2011.
- I.J. Walker, R. Sydneysmith, British Columbia, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, E. Bush (Eds.), From Impacts to Adaptation Canada in a Changing Climate, 2008: pp. 1–58.
- J. Andrey, K. Palko, Introduction, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 2–10.
- K. Palko, Synthesis, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 12–25.
- P. Withey, V.A. Lantz, T.O. Ochuodho, Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach, Applied Economics. 48 (2015) 59–71. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1073843.
- C.H. Ainsworth, J.F. Samhouri, D.S. Busch, W.W.L. Cheung, J. Dunne, T.A. Okey, Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries, ICES Journal of Marine Science. 68 (2011) 1217–1229. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr043.
- R. Haigh, D. Ianson, C.A. Holt, H.E. Neate, A.M. Edwards, Effects of Ocean Acidification on Temperate Coastal Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries in the Northeast Pacific, PLoS ONE. 10 (2015) e0117533. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117533.
- * P. Cummins, R. Haigh, Ecosystem Status and Trends Report for North Coast and Hecate Strait ecozone, DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/045, 2010.
- U.R. Sumaila, V.W.Y. Lam, Out of Stock: The Impact of Climate Change on British Columbia’s Staple Seafood Supply and Prices, Vancouver BC, 2015.Canada.
- * T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
- * J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
- L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
- * D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
- * Reid et al. 2014. M.G. Reid, C. Hamilton, S.K. Reid, W. Trousdale, C. Hill, N. Turner, et al., Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using a Values-Focused Approach: A Case Study with the Gitga’at Nation, Journal of Ethnobiology. 34 (2014) 401–424. doi:10.2993/0278-0771-34.3.401.
- P.L. Barnard, A.D. Short, M.D. Harley, K.D. Splinter, S. Vitousek, I.L. Turner, et al., Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Nature Geoscience 2015 8:10. 8 (2015) 801–807. doi:10.1038/ngeo2539.
