Regional Climate Change Projections

Changes in wind and wave patterns may interact with other climate change projections such as sea level rise, but the projections of future winds and storm events are highly uncertain [36]. Storm intensities in the North Pacific increased during 1940-1998, and storm surge related winds and storms may become more frequent and intense as air and ocean temperatures increase [44,85].

Ocean salinity is declining globally, along the BC coast, and within the MaPP region [82]. Freshwater discharge from glaciers is a significant contributor to the nearshore waters of BC. Coastal runoff contributes to maintaining the salinity levels along the coast, driven by glaciers, as well as watersheds driven by fall and winter seasonal precipitation. Large river systems (Fraser River, Naas River, Skeena River) also drain large watersheds and experience pronounced spring freshets. Coastal salinity levels are controlled mainly by these processes at the local scale rather than large-scale climate changes [55]. Salinity effects also influence total sea level rise through ocean expansion through global ocean warming [32,83,84].

Ocean oxygen concentrations have been declining in both pelagic (open ocean) and coastal waters for at least the past half-century [81]. Oxygen minimum zones in the open ocean have increased in area, and some coastal areas have low enough oxygen concentrations that marine species distributions and abundances have been affected [81]. Oxygen levels are likely to continue to decline in the northeast Pacific ocean, and coastal shelf and slope marine ecosystems are likely to lose well oxygenated habitats [57]. Seafloor habitats in the North Pacific could experience a reduction of 0.7-3.7% in oxygen levels by 2100 [54].

Ocean acidification is occurring faster as higher latitude areas, due to the effects of temperature on carbon dioxide absorption [76–78]). Globally, ocean acidification is projected to increase by 100% or more by 2100, but there is large uncertainty and variation among regions and climate scenarios [32,52,79]. Within the MaPP region, acidification is projected to continue to increase as carbon dioxide emissions continue to rise. Average pH levels could decline to between 7.69-7.96 (RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, respectively) by 2091-2100 [32,80].

Warming ocean temperatures will affect ecosystems and species across the world and within this region. In BC, sea surface temperatures are likely to increase by between 0.5°C to 2.0°C by the end of the century (2065-2078, relative to a 1995-2008 baseline) ([21]; see MaPP Regional Table; Maps). The rate of ocean temperature increase may accelerate, as consistent with the accelerating rise in global sea surface temperatures [14,75].

Global climate models project that the average global sea level will rise by up to 100-120cm by 2100 [10]. The rate of sea level rise will vary, depending on variations in ocean temperature increase and ocean current patterns. Relative sea level across the coast of BC is projected to rise by an average of 20-30 cm by 2100 (90% confidence interval of 10-50 cm) (MaPP regional table).

However, there are many uncertainties in the projections for sea level rise. Localized ocean currents, tidal patterns, and river discharge rates will also influence the observed rate of sea level rise to particular areas. For instance, some models project higher observed sea surface height (SSH) values along the northern coast of BC during the next century in winter and spring related to wind patterns and increasing river discharge [21].