Baylee Woodley | Page 2 | Northern Shelf Bioregion Climate Change Assessment

Table 1: Summary of climate impacts on key fisheries in the north Pacific and British Columbia [92,160].

Fisheries species of interest	Ecological variable affected by climate change	Probable impacts
Sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria)	Ocean temperature	May negatively affect egg, larval and juvenile survival. Declining ocean productivity may affect recruitment. Overall: Climate change over the next 50 years may not impact adult sablefish or long term population dynamics. Projected change in relative abundance of -9 to -11% by 2050.
Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii)	Ocean temperature	Herring ocean habitats will be affected. Predation from increasing populations of Pacific hake may affect herring populations. Overall: Abundance is projected to decline by 32-49% by 2050.
Pacific hake (Merluccius productus)	Ocean temperature	Hake biomass may increase. More migration into northern range (BC waters) Overall: Abundance may increase.
Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis)	Ocean temperature	Overall: May reduce recruitment. Projected change in relative abundance of -12 to -13% by 2050.
Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus)	Ocean temperature	Overall: Recruitment may decline if Aleutian Lows decrease.
Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax)	Ocean temperature Oceanographic conditions	Unlikely to impact or unknown projected change in relative abundance of 33-44% by 2050.
Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus)	Ocean temperature	Likely to severely deplete populations by reducing or eliminating recruitment. Projected change in relative abundance of -13 to -35% by 2050.
Pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)	Ocean temperature River temperatures Oceanographic conditions	Overall: Abundance is likely to decline, particularly for southern populations. Projected change in relative abundance of -40 to -44% by 2050.
Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka)	Ocean temperature River temperatures Oceanographic conditions	Mortality is likely to increase during all life stages when exposed to warm water temperatures. Overall: Abundance is very likely to decline, particularly for southern populations. Projected change in relative abundance of -10 to -36% by 2050.
Chum Salmon (Oncorhynchus keta)	Ocean temperature River temperatures Oceanographic conditions	Mortality is likely to increase, but uncertainty is high. Overall: Abundance is likely to decline, particularly in the southern portion of the coast. Projected decline in relative abundance of 10-12% by 2050.

Table 2: Summarized key risks and knowledge gaps related to ocean acidification (OA) [52,63]

Species	Details	Sectoral impact	Uncertainty or opportunity
Shellfish	Shell formation will be negatively affected by OA Increasing toxicity of harmful algae blooms	Fisheries and aquaculture	Wild shellfish may be more able to adapt than farmed. No studies yet on geoduck clams. Likely to be increasing shellfish closures, Potential for decreased reproductive success and mass mortality at higher trophic levels (predators) including fish, seabirds, marine mammals
Salmon (farmed Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar)	Algae blooms are likely to increase (fish killing alga Heterosigma akashiwo)	Fisheries and aquaculture	High uncertainty
Food web dynamics	Changes in species composition of phytoplankton’s Decline of pteropods Potential decline of echinoderms Observed behavioural changes at various trophic levels e.g. decreased predator avoidance in larval fish Potential behavioural changes at various trophic levels, e.g. increased movement to refugia, eelgrass meadows	Ecosystems Fisheries and aquaculture	High uncertainty Likelihood of impacts at higher trophic levels (fish) e.g. Pink salmon (Oncorhychus gorbuscha). Likelihood of impacts to predators e.g. rockfish and flatfish. Significant knowledge gaps.
Algae	Changing algal species e.g. upright macroalgae may shift to algal turf. This will change habitats for juvenile fish Declining coral species (especially octocorals) Seagrasses are likely to benefit from increased carbon, but increased grazing will have negative effects. Net effect will be neutral for seagrasses.	Fisheries and aquaculture Ecosystems	High uncertainty
Finfish	Potential difficulties with olfaction (sense of smell), osmoregulation, and cardiorespiratory control Direct negative impacts (reproduction, growth rates, survival) at high levels of carbon dioxide	Fisheries and aquaculture	High uncertainty Minimal research Significant knowledge gap
Crustaceans	Crabs may be negatively affected Juvenile stages of all crustaceans are more vulnerable	Fisheries and aquaculture	Significant knowledge gap
Marine mammals	Ocean acidification may lead to a ‘noisier’ ocean which could impact marine mammals	Ecosystems	Uncertainty exists

Unknown/not studied: Cold water corals (Octocorals), glass sponges

General adaptation actions for climate impacts and sectors

Appendix 3: Table 1. Recommended adaptation actions for conservation and management.

Climate change projection	Regional or Sub-regional impacts, by sector	Suggested Adaptation Actions
Warming ocean temperatures	Fisheries: Shifting species ranges	Consider adaptive or dynamic ocean management [161,162] Fisheries: Adapt fisheries allocations after species abundance/distributions have changed [122] Adjust fishing practices or gears to new species or changing fishery openings [122]
Ocean acidification	Aquaculture: Declining productivity, larval survival, and reproductive capacity of calciferous organisms	Consider land-based saltwater flow-through aquaculture systems as an alternative to at-sea net pen aquaculture systems
Sea level rise	Ecosystems: Intensifying storms and warming oceans will affect coastal regions through erosion and degradation of shorelines and wetlands	Marine reserves: Nearshore habitat protection can reduce loss and damage, and promote intact habitats that offer natural coastal defense, ultimately supporting human livelihoods and ecological recovery [151]
Wind, waves, and storm events	Higher coastal erosion and flooding	Apply a precautionary approach: Use extreme recurrences for both winds and water levels in setting scenarios for mitigation and adaptation. Research gaps: Impacts of storm surges, especially on low lying regions. More modeling is needed to improve projections of storm events and impacts including changes in frequency, intensity, and direction of future extreme events.

Author: Baylee Woodley

Written by Charlotte K. Whitney and Tugce Conger

Written by Charlotte K. Whitney, Tugce Conger, Natalie C. Ban, and Romney McPhie