Executive Summary

Records indicate that air temperatures in British Columbia have increased ~1.3⁰C since 1900. Climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (2014) point to much greater warming for the remainder of the century. These models project increases in annual air temperatures in British Columbia (BC) of, on average, 1.8⁰C by the 2050s, and 2.7⁰C by the 2080s (PCIC). Projected changes in annual precipitation for BC are less significant, but overall more precipitation is likely, with warmer wetter winters and drier summers. Sea surface temperatures in BC are projected to increase by 0.5-2⁰C by 2065-2078, and ocean pH is predicted to continue to decline. Sea levels are projected to increase by 80cm to 120cm by 2100, with variability expected across the region. Dissolved oxygen levels and sea surface salinity in BC will likely decline overall. Increases in extreme weather events and spring runoff, and declining winter snowpack, are likely in BC, with projections consistent across different climate models.

These projected changes are relevant at the scale of the MaPP region. Where data exist, we comment on the nuances of these changes at the MaPP regional and sub-regional scales. With these projected changes, some sectoral impacts to consider for the MaPP region and the wider BC coast include: 

Ecosystems 

  • Warming waters and increasing rates of ocean acidification are affecting and will likely continue to affect marine ecosystems and species. 
  • Rising sea levels and increasingly intense waves, winds, and storms will affect coastline habitats and species composition.

Fisheries and aquaculture

  • The geographical ranges and species composition of marine ecosystems are changing. This is linked to warming ocean temperatures and changing marine habitats.
  • Rising stream temperatures will likely negatively affect freshwater fish including the freshwater life history of salmon species. Changing timing of snowmelt, further exacerbated by decreased summer precipitation, may make this impact worse. 

Human communities

  • Coastal erosion and sea inundation from storm surge, especially in northern areas, will likely increase. These impacts are linked to sea level rise, increased storminess and wave events, and increased precipitation combined with the effects of warming trends on timing of snowmelt, given the contribution of spring snowmelt to floods within the province of BC.
  • Increasing air temperatures and changing seasonality may provide opportunities to the tourism sector and economies of coastal communities by lengthening the summer tourist season, but could also provide potential problems to local populations who are adapted to current seasonal timing.
  • Changing fish species composition will affect the fishing sector, coastal communities and economies. 

Marine Infrastructure

  • Coastal infrastructure is likely to be affected by increasing extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and increased risk of flooding affecting shore-based infrastructure and buildings. 
  • Transportation corridors for marine shipping will be affected by increasing winds, waves, and storms. Ports and harbours would do well to plan proactively for increased wave heights and storm surge events. 

Proactive planning for adaptation based on these climate projections and associated risks for key species would decrease the likely impacts on the sectors outlined above.  However, there are critical gaps in knowledge for many climate change projections and impacts, especially in the marine environment and at fine spatial scales. Improved climate projections and sub-regional vulnerability and risk assessments would improve integrated coastal decision making and planning supporting healthy coastal communities and economies.  

A pod of killer whales not too far from shore comes to the surface and spouts of water rise up.

Acknowledgements

We thank all the researchers who generously shared their time with us to offer insights on the status of climate change research and future recommendations in this area, in particular: Hussein Alidina, Stephen Ban, William Cheung, Katie Gale, Karen Hunter, Rebecca Martone, Trevor Murdock, Cathryn Clarke Murray, Tom Okey, Malin Pinsky, Gillian Vines, and Colette Wabnitz. We thank Natalie Ban for valuable advice and feedback throughout. The maps in this report were produced by Emily Goodman and Glenda Wyatt. Graphic design report layout by Gary Leung. 

This project was developed in collaboration with the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast (MaPP). We thank all MaPP Partners for helping to scope this work and for providing valuable feedback throughout the process.

Tides Canada – MaPP Implementation Support Project (grant #GI00128) generously provided the financial support that made this report possible.

A ridge covered with green and brown grass is in the foreground and it curves around to the left and out into the distance. on the right is the ocean. The sky is blue with white clouds.
Triangle Island, British Columbia, Canada | Photo by Joanna Smith

Terminology

The following acronyms and terminology are used in the context of the Marine Plan Partnership and oceans management in the Northern Shelf Bioregion.

Important Terminology

Established definitions have been used in this report to frame the theory and methods used in climate change assessments, which are provided here for clarity from the sources. A complete glossary is included in the Appendix.

Adaptation to climate change means the adjustment(s) in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Adaptive capacity describes a system’s ability to cope with the disturbance and self-organize to continue its functioning.
Climate Change Projections describe the future and the pathway leading to it. Specific to climate change, projections estimate the change in a climate change indicator or variable derived from models of future climate. 
Exposure refers to a system’s properties that are subject to potential future harm from a disturbance.
Sensitivity refers to a system’s tendency of loss when exposed to a disturbance. 
Impact is the effect or influence that occurs based on a projected change (in climate).
Risk is the probability that a disturbance will happen.
Vulnerability is how susceptible a social or environmental system or sector is to the effects of a climate change impacts and it is a function of the systems’ sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity.

Introduction

The world’s climate is changing at an increasingly rapid rate due to greenhouse gas emissions from human industrial activity and population growth. While these changes are global, the ramifications occur at all scales, and decisions for adaptation must be made. Governments, regions, and communities need to understand what is happening, what knowledge gaps exist, and how they may be able to respond. Coastal regions are unique and especially vulnerable to climate change, and the impacts are diverse and often cumulative. Identifying how these changes are already starting to occur, and could occur in the future, is important for planning appropriate management responses. 

This project was developed in collaboration with the Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast (MaPP), whose planning region is similar to the geographic area known as the Northern Shelf Bioregion (NSB). This report is intended to be a tool to help guide future research and climate change adaptations in the region, specific to the interests of MaPP. It outlines the current available knowledge on climate change projections with associated impacts, exposure, and risks to the coastal social-ecological system of the ‘MaPP region’, also referred to as the Northern Shelf Bioregion.

This report focuses on climate-associated impacts, exposure, and risks to four key sectors of the coastal social-ecological system in the NSB: 

  1. ecosystems;
  2. fisheries and aquaculture;
  3. human communities;
  4. marine infrastructure.

Key climate change projections for the MaPP region are included based on the literature and expert interviews, with information provided specific to the four MaPP sub-regions where possible given the scale of the data. In particular, we focus on highlighting the differences and similarities among and between the four MaPP sub-regions, if and where feasible given the data available. 

Through this work, we also aimed to identify gaps in knowledge and ongoing adaptation actions that have been implemented in the region, as well as recommend further adaptation actions based on the literature. As well, we include recommendations for future research on climate change impacts, vulnerability (including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), and risk, in this region, as well as mention any ongoing and planned climate change research pertaining to the key areas of interest to MaPP to help guide future adaptation work. 

A cluster of red strawberry anenome with clear tendrils sticking out from their circular centers.
Strawberry Anenome

Limitations

This report is based on an extensive literature review and a series of discussions with experts involved in relevant research within the coastal region of British Columbia. Information was collected within the constraints of the scope, budget, and time for the component of the project. Research and discussions focused on issues of relevance to climate change impacts and adaptation planning in British Columbia, Canada, and specifically the Northern Shelf Bioregion when possible. 

This report is not a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts in British Columbia’s coastal marine environment, nor does it offer new analyses or model outputs projecting climate impacts within the Northern Shelf Bioregion. Rather, this report focuses on a baseline assessment, or scoping exercise, of known climate impacts and risks to the Northern Shelf Bioregion, in order to determine the strategic next steps that could be taken to address the needs of coastal communities within the Marine Plan Partnership region in terms of climate change adaptation and adaptive capacities. 

The literature in this field is wide ranging and growing rapidly, and much of the work is ongoing or in progress and therefore not published or readily available. Researchers do not tend to share ongoing research or early results prior to publication. Thus, while this report and information is integrally based on available peer reviewed literature and government agency reports (federal and provincial), and informed by the insights offered by several key experts, the baseline information expressed in this report is entirely the responsibility of the authors. 

The carved face of a totem pole. The negative space is unpainted red, and the facial features are painted red and black.
Klemtu Totem | Photo by Doug Neasloss

Climate Change Threats

A breaching humpback whale with only their tail in the water. There is a blue sky and evergreen covered mountain in the distance.
Humpback Whale | Photo by Janie Wray

Global climate change is now widely recognized as the singular greatest threat to the world’s ecosystems, cultures, and economies. Increasing anthropogenic emissions over the past century have changed oceanic conditions, impacted marine ecosystems, and negatively affected the ecosystem services and resources that they provide to human society. The effects of climate change are already being felt within Canada’s economy and communities, with impacts ranging from decreasing air quality, increasing extreme weather events such as flooding, degrading infrastructure from increased weathering, increasing water stress, declining fisheries and agricultural productivity, and a host of associated health effects. The impacts of extreme weather events and increasing temperatures are growing, especially in recent years and for coastal regions. Severe storms, coastal flooding, rising ocean temperatures, and ocean acidification are among the changes that have already been observed, with numerous resulting impacts to coastal social-ecological systems.

So far, international efforts to mitigate climate change by meeting emissions reductions targets have not been successful, and it seems certain that global temperatures will continue to rise. The next few decades will bring increasing impacts and challenges, as global air temperatures are anticipated to increase by 2-5⁰ C by 2100 [1]. 

All economic sectors and communities in Canada will be affected by the impacts of climate change. Coastal regions and remote communities are particularly vulnerable to changes because of their dependence upon marine resources, a high level of exposure to many climate effects, and sometimes low adaptive capacity. However, regional, First Nations, and community governments can be adaptive and are place-based, and therefore are especially well situated to make proactive decisions to manage the risks and associated impacts from climate change. 

This scoping report is aimed at guiding the next steps for research and implementation of climate change adaptation strategies for the MaPP region (Figure 1) of coastal British Columbia, Canada. 

A subsequent report also authored in 2018 by Conger and Whitney reviews existing frameworks and tools for carrying out vulnerability and risk assessments. It includes strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats related to applying existing vulnerability and risk assessment frameworks and tools to the MaPP region.  

Social-Ecological Context and Management: BC and the Northern Shelf Bioregion

In BC, the productive coastal marine food web supports rich First Nations and non-First Nations communities, cultures, and economies. Human communities have lived in this region for thousands of years, supported by abundant terrestrial and marine ecosystems and resources. These also shaped human socio-cultural values, as exhibited by the close co-existence that First Nations cultures have with the landscape and the place-based stewardship that still exists today, despite the modern history of colonization.  

The BC coast is managed at a range of scales including bioregions, eco-sections, and habitats [3]. The four bioregions include: 1) Offshore Pacific; 2) Northern Shelf; 3) Southern Shelf; and 4) Strait of Georgia [3]. This report focuses on the MaPP planning region, which is largely the same region as the NSB, with some exceptions (Figure 1). The NSB is one of Canada’s five Large Ocean Management Areas (LOMAs) that are used to implement Canada’s Oceans Act and is the focus of ongoing initiatives for marine resource and marine conservation planning in BC. The NSB assumes the same footprint as the Pacific North Coast Integrated Management Area (PNCIMA)[2]. Existing and ongoing research in the NSB has fewer research initiatives than the other southern bioregions in BC [4], but the combination of ongoing management and planning in the NSB suggest that this could change. 

Ecologically speaking, Canada’s Pacific coast is a highly dynamic and complex transition zone where three large ocean currents converge: the upwelling (southward flowing) California Current, the down welling (northward flowing) Alaska Coastal Current, and the eastward flowing North Pacific Current (Figure 2). In addition, the California Undercurrent transports warm ocean waters from the tropical latitudes to intersect with southern Vancouver Island, and a wind driven coastal countercurrent – the Davidson Current – flows seasonally northwards into BC waters from Mexico [5]. These currents are important drivers of marine nutrient richness and ecological diversity in BC’s waters. 

Recent summaries of the ecological status of the marine coastal system of BC emphasize that the ecological complexity and diverse species dynamics within the region are supported by high primary productivity and highly variable oceanography, hydrology, and geomorphology [5,6]. Ecological productivity in the NSB is driven by upwelling and down-welling patterns that vary seasonally and episodically; variable seasonal patterns of freshwater and tidal mixing also affect oceanographic conditions. Regional bathymetry also affects marine ecological conditions, as deep-water troughs and canyons separate shallow banks in the center of Hecate Strait [5]. Oceanographic conditions are also influenced by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The El Niño phase of the ENSO tends to enhance the flows of southern warm currents that tend to correlate with the arrival of southern tropical marine species in these waters [5,7,8]. El Niño also affects the natural variability in air temperature in BC, and year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability in climate and weather across the province may mask observations of long-term climate change during some periods and in some regions [9,10]. The PDO is a long-term pattern of Pacific climate variability that affects oceanographic conditions across the Northeast Pacific. The variation in the PDO (warm/cool) patterns can affect the region for a decade or longer. 

Along the coast of BC, ocean water temperatures are warming, and nearshore waters are becoming less salty, less oxygenated, and more acidic (a chemical process resulting from them becoming enriched in carbon dioxide) [11]. These changes are contributing to biological changes such as shifting species distributions [12,13]. In order to understand and anticipate climate change impacts, a range of modeling approaches have been used to characterize and predict ecological and biological responses along the BC coast and the surrounding marine area. Research focused on and within the NSB has included descriptions of the ecological communities and context, trophodynamic modeling, and the effects of climate change on fisheries and ecosystems [14–20].

20180202_MaPP-Figure02_ReportPG-15-2

Figure 2: Coastal region of British Columbia showing the main current patterns and ocean dynamics. From Okey et al. 2014, “Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: A summary of scientific knowledge.”

Methodology

This project synthesizes the current state of understanding of climate change projections, impacts, and vulnerabilities (exposure, specifically), risk, and adaptation within the MaPP region by reviewing the diversity of relevant information, resources, and spatial data, broadly and specific to the MaPP region and sub-regions wherever possible. Projections and impacts are synthesized so that they are specific to the region and sub-regions, wherever possible. We gathered information from peer-reviewed literature, from provincial and federal government reports (grey literature), and through interviews and emails with key contacts and researchers.

Specifically, in gathering information for this report (Figure 3), we included: previous climate change vulnerability and risk assessment work from MaPP and associated contractors; publications from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports; peer reviewed academic studies on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies; assessment methods for climate change vulnerabilities and risks; external reports on predicted climate changes, impacts, and risks to the region [6]; Fisheries and Oceans Canada reports on climate impacts and risks; and Natural Resources Canada reports. We also included information from other key publications focused on climate change impacts in BC and the MaPP region. Except for some fundamental background information, we only included publications from the year 2000 and newer. 

20180202_MaPP-Figure03_ReportPG-16

Figure 3: Schematic showing the global and smaller scale data sources informing the report and maps of climate impacts on key sectors within the MaPP region. Spatial data for mapping were derived from these sources as well as from the MaPP database. Particular sectoral impacts from climate projections are shown on the third row.

We reviewed the literature and extracted relevant information for the region and sub-regions, where possible. We categorized climate projections and associated sectoral impacts and exposure by geographical scale (regional or sub-regional). Wherever possible, as limited by the available data, we also aimed to identify differences between the four MaPP sub-regions. Finally, we also contacted and interviewed key researchers in BC who work in this field to enquire about ongoing projects.

This report focuses on the following climate change variables, both observed and projected:

  • Air temperature 
  • Sea level rise 
  • Sea surface temperature 
  • Ocean acidification 
  • Ocean deoxygenation 
  • Sea surface salinity
  • Winds, wave patterns, and extreme weather events

To assess reporting of climate change projections and sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks in the associated regional and sub-regional tables, we used a reliability score used by the IPCC to qualitatively assess document quality and reliability of information. We ranked each reference on a 3-point scale and calculated an overall evidence quality score for each climate variable at both a regional and sub-regional scale. We used the same methodology to assess the evidence quality of the estimated impacts to the sub-regions from the climate variables. 

Two people in orange life jackets are sitting in a yellow kayak on the ocean surrounded by tangles of kelp that are floating on top of the water. The sky is blue with grey clouds.
Kelp research | Photo by Markus Thompson

Existing Climate Change Assessments

Several reports have provided insight into the overall trends in climate changes and climate change projections, globally and for BC and the BC coastal region. These include global reports from the IPCC. In 1998, Environment Canada released the first national scale assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation, The Canada Country Study [24]. Within that report, a chapter specific to BC highlights key impacts to the coastal region and suggests effective adaptation actions [25]. Also at the national level, the Government of Canada has produced a recent series of climate change assessments that identify observed and predicted impacts to Canada’s economy, society, and ecosystems, as well as recommended practices to support adaptation to those impacts. These assessments include: 

  • Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation: A Canadian Perspective (2004)[26]
  • Canada’s Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate (2016) [27]
  • Canada in a Changing Climate: Sector Perspectives on Impacts and Adaptation (2014) [28]

The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) at the University of Victoria provides regionally adjusted (downscaled) climate change projections at the scale of BC through the publicly available Plan2Adapt tool. These projections are currently available for three future time horizons across the province based on an averaged set of climate models from the IPCC (2020s, 2050s, 2080s). Projections over both terrestrial and ocean areas are included for some key climate change variables. These data were used in this report as well as in the regional and sub-regional tables (see Tables section). Additional projections for ocean biochemistry are available from Environment Canada’s Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis. 

Fisheries and Oceans Canada has released reports on the impacts to climate change in the NSB and for the coast of BC [4,29,30]. The Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society (CPAWS), in collaboration with the World Wildlife Fund (WWF), completed a report in 2014 on climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems [6]. In addition, EcoAdapt completed a report of vulnerabilities specific to the MaPP region [31]. The report included maps on current or projected changes in sea level rise, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification for the MaPP sub-regions and region. Here we update their report with more recent climate projections, with potential risks and vulnerabilities for particular sectors and sub-regions.