Methodology

This project synthesizes the current state of understanding of climate change projections, impacts, and vulnerabilities (exposure, specifically), risk, and adaptation within the MaPP region by reviewing the diversity of relevant information, resources, and spatial data, broadly and specific to the MaPP region and sub-regions wherever possible. Projections and impacts are synthesized so that they are specific to the region and sub-regions, wherever possible. We gathered information from peer-reviewed literature, from provincial and federal government reports (grey literature), and through interviews and emails with key contacts and researchers.

Specifically, in gathering information for this report (Figure 3), we included: previous climate change vulnerability and risk assessment work from MaPP and associated contractors; publications from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Reports; peer reviewed academic studies on climate change impacts and adaptation strategies; assessment methods for climate change vulnerabilities and risks; external reports on predicted climate changes, impacts, and risks to the region [6]; Fisheries and Oceans Canada reports on climate impacts and risks; and Natural Resources Canada reports. We also included information from other key publications focused on climate change impacts in BC and the MaPP region. Except for some fundamental background information, we only included publications from the year 2000 and newer. 

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Figure 3: Schematic showing the global and smaller scale data sources informing the report and maps of climate impacts on key sectors within the MaPP region. Spatial data for mapping were derived from these sources as well as from the MaPP database. Particular sectoral impacts from climate projections are shown on the third row.

We reviewed the literature and extracted relevant information for the region and sub-regions, where possible. We categorized climate projections and associated sectoral impacts and exposure by geographical scale (regional or sub-regional). Wherever possible, as limited by the available data, we also aimed to identify differences between the four MaPP sub-regions. Finally, we also contacted and interviewed key researchers in BC who work in this field to enquire about ongoing projects.

This report focuses on the following climate change variables, both observed and projected:

  • Air temperature 
  • Sea level rise 
  • Sea surface temperature 
  • Ocean acidification 
  • Ocean deoxygenation 
  • Sea surface salinity
  • Winds, wave patterns, and extreme weather events

To assess reporting of climate change projections and sectoral impacts, vulnerabilities, and risks in the associated regional and sub-regional tables, we used a reliability score used by the IPCC to qualitatively assess document quality and reliability of information. We ranked each reference on a 3-point scale and calculated an overall evidence quality score for each climate variable at both a regional and sub-regional scale. We used the same methodology to assess the evidence quality of the estimated impacts to the sub-regions from the climate variables. 

Two people in orange life jackets are sitting in a yellow kayak on the ocean surrounded by tangles of kelp that are floating on top of the water. The sky is blue with grey clouds.
Kelp research | Photo by Markus Thompson
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