Tables: Predicted Climate Change Impacts Across Region and Sub-Regions

MaPP Region – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperatures may increase by 1.8°C (1.3°C to 2.7°C) by 2050 and 2.7°C (1.7°C to 4.5°C) by 20801, 2, 3; and average temperatures may reach ~7.8°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.6°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-21004*; Growing degree days: +283 (+179 to +429) 2050 and +468 (+262 to +769) by 20801; Frost free days: +20(+12 to +29) by 2050 and +30 (+16 to +48) by 20801; Winter minimum temperatures in northern BC may increase by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures may increase by 3–4°C. Increases in frost-free periods, growing-degree days, and frequency of extremely warm days [5].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], ecosystem, hydrology, and habitats [3], [5], nearshore marine mammals [5], [6], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2], human health and well-being [7]; Potential increases in: frequency and intensity of toxic algal blooms [6], potential benefits to tourism due to longer warm seasons [2].	High
Precipitation	Increasing average annual precipitation by 6% (2% to 12%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, 10% decrease in summer1,2*; up to ~18% more precipitation (low emissions, RCP2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Declining winter snowfall by -10% (-17% to +2%) by 2050 and -12% (-26% to -1%) by 20801; Winter precipitation increase by 10-25%, summer precipitation increase by 20% by 20508; overall precipitation increase in fall, winter and spring seasons [2], [3], [9], [10], [11].	High	Threats to: marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [10]; Increased: freshwater discharges and associated turbidity, flow of contaminants, pathogens and nutrients [6], [11], [12], summer drought and water scarcity for communities due to earlier freshet in the spring [9]; Changing salinity levels and stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current [12]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem dynamics, and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods and food availability [2].	High
Sea Level Rise	Rising sea levels from 80cm to 120cm [13] or from 20cm to 130cm [3] by 2100; Increases by ~25.1cm in Prince Rupert; ~9.3cm in Queen Charlotte; ~8.4cm in Bella Bella; ~13.9cm in Winter Harbour by 2100 [8]; Moderate rate of sea level rise until 2025, and rapid rate from 2025 up to 2100. May be counteracted by vertical land movement (uplift) by 1 and 3 mm/yr, but not enough to moderate SLR rates [14].	High	Threats to: fish, invertebrates [6], coastal plants, algae and inter-tidal habitat [6], First Nations’ heritage sites [10], [12], [15], [16], 17, groundwater quality due to salt water intrusion [15]; Increased coastal flooding and erosion risks on communities [10], [12], [15], [16], [17]; Economic impacts on: built environment and communities [10], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [16], [17], [18].
Sea Surface Temperature	Average sea surface temperatures may reach ~11.4°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-21004; Increases between 0.5°C and 2.0°C and average temperatures to be around 10-14°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline12.	High	Threats to: water quality [15], [23], [24], nearshore habitats and ecosystems [6], [15], [19], [24], diversity, abundance, growth, movement, range, interactions, distribution and survival of species [4], [6], [11], [19], [23], [24], [25], cascading impacts on ecosystems [6]; Increased incidence of marine diseases, harmful algal blooms and invasive species [15], [23], [24]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [15], [19].	High
Ocean Acidification	Average ~7.96 ph level with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph level with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Overall decreasing pH levels [19], [20], [21].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [11], [19], [20], production, growth, survival and structure of shelled organisms and fish [6], [19], [20], [21], [22], plankton community structure [6], [20], fished species, particularly to salmon aquaculture and shellfish industry [11], [19], [20], [22], overall food safety [11], [19], [20]; Economic, social and cultural impacts of alterations to habitat and fishery industry [19], [20], [22].	High
Oxygenation	Declining dissolved oxygen levels for the Northeast Pacific Ocean [6], [11], [19].	High	Threats to: species with low mobility or species adapted to low oxygen [6], primary productivity, growth and distribution of fish populations [6], [11], [22], fished species compared to unfished species11,19,22; Impacts on the ecosystem and habitat of groundfish [15], [22], [23]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [11], [19], [22].	High
Streamflow	Increases in spring flow with slight increases in during summer by 2080 [8], [15]; Stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current, stronger flows in Queen Charlotte Sound, Hecate Strait and Dixon entrance [12]; Decreased summer flows in glacier and snowmelt dominated watersheds [9], [15].	High	Threats to: nearshore marine mammals due to alterations to temperature, salinity and stratification in ocean surface layers [6], ecosystems due to oxygen and nutrient upwelling6,12; Increased and periodic water scarcity during the summer [9].	High
Sea Surface Salinity	Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1.25% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.2% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [4]; Decreases in sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [12].	High	Threats to: species range and food web structure [19], fisheries industry [19]; Reduction in total ecosystem biomass [19]. Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities as fisheries migrate across regional and political boundaries [19].	High
Winds, Waves and Storms	More intense and more frequent winter storms, surges and waves [2], [26]; Increases in damaging extreme high-water events [15]; Increases in coastal wind strength in summer [6].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], recruitment for fisheries [6], traditional way of life and First Nations food supply due to altered timing of seasons [27], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [10], [15]; Increase in: marine infrastructure maintenance and insurance costs [10], [15], coastal erosion and flooding [28]; Alterations in the timing or strength of the spring weather transition, coastal currents and upwell strength and timing [6].	Medium
General	Increasing occurrence and frequency of climate impacts [2], [15], [23], [24], [28].	High	Threats to: access to traditional foods [25], [26], species abundance and distribution [25], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [25], fish spawning [13]; 21% decline in Sockeye salmon, 10% decline in Chum salmon, 15% decline in Sable fish stocks, and 1.33$, 0.77$ and 0.65$ increase per pound, respectively [22]; 15.0% to 20.8% decline in commercially and culturally important fisheries species relative abundance by 2050 [25]; Economic, social and cultural impacts due to changes in fisheries [22], [25].	High


Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

* Data specific to MaPP region

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative

PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for British Columbia 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
* PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
P.W. Mote, E.P. Salathe Jr, Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic Change. 102 (2010) 29–50. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9848-z.
* [IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
K.L. Hunter, J. Wade, eds., Pacific Large Aquatic Basin Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Opportunities Assessment – Marine Species and Aquaculture, Can. Manuscr. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3049, 2015.
S.B. Henderson, V. Wan, T. Kosatsky, Differences in heat-related mortality across four ecological regions with diverse urban, rural, and remote populations in British Columbia, Canada, Health Place. 23 (2013) 48–53.
R.E. Thomson, B.D. Bornhold, S. Mazzotti, An examination of the factors affecting relative and absolute sea level in coastal British Columbia, Can. Tech. Rep. Hydrogr.Ocean Sci. 260, 2008.
N. Vadeboncoeur, Perspectives on Canada’s West Coast region, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, T.S. James, C.S.L.M. Clarke (Eds.), Canadas Marine Coasts in a Changing Climate, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2016: pp. 207–252.
D. Nyland, J.R. Nodelman, British Columbia, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 66–103.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
B.D. Bornhold, Projected Sea Level Changes for British Columbia in the 21st Century, Victoria, BC, 2008.
BCMoE, Climate Change Adaption Guidelines for Sea Dikes and Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use – Guidelines for Management of Coastal Flood Hazard Land Use, 2011.
I.J. Walker, R. Sydneysmith, British Columbia, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, E. Bush (Eds.), From Impacts to Adaptation Canada in a Changing Climate, 2008: pp. 1–58.
J. Andrey, K. Palko, Introduction, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 2–10.
K. Palko, Synthesis, in: K. Palko, D.S. Lemmen (Eds.), Climate Risks and Adaptation Practices for the Canadian Transportation Sector, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 2017: pp. 12–25.
P. Withey, V.A. Lantz, T.O. Ochuodho, Economic costs and impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise and storm surge in Canadian coastal provinces: a CGE approach, Applied Economics. 48 (2015) 59–71. doi:10.1080/00036846.2015.1073843.
C.H. Ainsworth, J.F. Samhouri, D.S. Busch, W.W.L. Cheung, J. Dunne, T.A. Okey, Potential impacts of climate change on Northeast Pacific marine foodwebs and fisheries, ICES Journal of Marine Science. 68 (2011) 1217–1229. doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsr043.
R. Haigh, D. Ianson, C.A. Holt, H.E. Neate, A.M. Edwards, Effects of Ocean Acidification on Temperate Coastal Marine Ecosystems and Fisheries in the Northeast Pacific, PLoS ONE. 10 (2015) e0117533. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0117533.
* P. Cummins, R. Haigh, Ecosystem Status and Trends Report for North Coast and Hecate Strait ecozone, DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/045, 2010.
U.R. Sumaila, V.W.Y. Lam, Out of Stock: The Impact of Climate Change on British Columbia’s Staple Seafood Supply and Prices, Vancouver BC, 2015.Canada.
* T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
* J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
* D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
* Reid et al. 2014. M.G. Reid, C. Hamilton, S.K. Reid, W. Trousdale, C. Hill, N. Turner, et al., Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using a Values-Focused Approach: A Case Study with the Gitga’at Nation, Journal of Ethnobiology. 34 (2014) 401–424. doi:10.2993/0278-0771-34.3.401.
P.L. Barnard, A.D. Short, M.D. Harley, K.D. Splinter, S. Vitousek, I.L. Turner, et al., Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Nature Geoscience 2015 8:10. 8 (2015) 801–807. doi:10.1038/ngeo2539.

North Vancouver Island – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperatures may increase by 1.5°C (0.9°C to 2.3°C) by 2050 and 2.5°C (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2080 [1], [2] and average air temperatures could reach as much as ~8.5°C (low emissions, RCP2.6) to ~12°C (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 313 (+189 to +478) more growing degree days by 2050 and 521 (+270 to +832) more growing degree days by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost-free days: 23 (+13 to +35) more frost free days by 2050 and 35 more (+19 to +52) by 2080 [1].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], fish stocks and species distribution [4],[5], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2], traditional food resources as seasonality changes and becomes unpredictable [6]; Potential positive benefits to tourism due to longer summers [2],[7].	Low
Precipitation	Average annual precipitation may increase by 6% (-1% to 10%) by 2050 and 8% (1% to 16%) by 2080 [1]; ~10% decrease in summer [2]; up ~15% more (low emissions RCP2.6) and ~21% (high emissions, RCP8.5) by 2091-2100 (relative to 1961-1990 [3]); Winter snowfall may decrease by -25% (-42% to -8%) by 2050 and -33% (-59% to -13%) by 2080 [1]; Stronger Vancouver Island Coastal Current [8].	High	Threats to fish stocks due to lower stream flows and decreased summer precipitation [4]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems, ecosystem dynamics, habitats and altered current patterns [2], [8].	High
Sea Level Rise	Sea level may rise from 0.6m to 0.9m by 2100 [8].	High	Threats to: cultural and heritage resources [7],[9], traditional food sources [7],[9], docking and processing infrastructure [7], access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [7], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [7].	High
Sea Surface Temperature	Average sea surface temperature to be ~11°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increasing sea surface temperature by ~1.8°C and average temperature to be ~11-13°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [8].	High	Threats and changes to: aquaculture productivity [7], marine species distributions [5], [12], marine food resources for local communities [7], [12]; Potential positive effect on tourism due to warm water temperatures [7]; Poleward species range shifts at a rate of 10-18 km/decade [12] to 30.1 ± 2.34 (S.E.) km per decade from 2000 to 2050 [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fish species and abundance [7].	Medium
Ocean Acidification	Average ~7.95 pH with RCP 2.6 and ~7.68 pH unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 [3]; Decreasing ocean pH levels (increasing ocean acidification) [7].	Medium	Threats to: habitats and ecosystems [7], [10], calcifying organisms [7], [10], aquaculture industry [7], [10], food web structure [7], [10], species composition [7], [10], reproductive and recruitment success [7], [10], timing of growth and development stages [7], [10], prey availability [7], [10].	Medium
Oxygenation	Declining dissolved oxygen levels [7].	Low	Threats to: availability of food resources [7], habitat range of species that tolerate low oxygen habitats; negative impacts to fisheries productivity [10], [11].	High
Streamflow
Sea Surface Salinity	Likely declining sea surface salinity by ~1.5% with RCP 2.6 and ~3% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline3; Declining sea surface salinity by ~1% by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline8, ~9% decrease in sea surface salinity at the mouth of the Homathko River [8], ~2.5% increase in sea salinity (~0.6 increase in psu unit) at Johnstone Strait by Port Neville [8].	High	Threats to: reproduction of seagrasses [9], the availability of marine derived food resources [7], [10].	Low
Winds, Waves and Storms	Increasing frequency and intensity of storms and storm surge, flooding as mean sea level increases [2], [4], [7]; estimated 75.3cm storm surge height for a 100-year storm surge event [13].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], docking and fisheries processing infrastructure [7], traditional harvesting practices due to unpredictable seasonality [6].	Low
General	Increasing intensity of cumulative climate impacts [7], [9], [10].	High	Threats to access to traditional foods [6], [7], [12], biodiversity [10], species abundance and distribution [5], [12], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [12], resource conservation due to ecosystem stress [7], tourism and wildlife viewing opportunities asspecies distribution and habitat change [7]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [12]; Health and economic implications for coastal communities due to altered access to traditional foods [6], [7], [12].	Low

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative


Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Stratcona 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
[IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
J.R. Christian, M.G.G. Foreman, Climate Trends and Projections for the Pacific Large Aquatic Basin, Can. Tech. Rep. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 3032, 2013.
W.W.L. Cheung, V.W.Y. Lam, J.L. Sarmiento, K. Kearney, R. Watson, D. Pauly, Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios, Fish and Fisheries. 10 (2009) 235–251. doi:10.1111/j.1467-2979.2008.00315.x.
M.G. Reid, C. Hamilton, S.K. Reid, W. Trousdale, C. Hill, N. Turner, et al., Indigenous Climate Change Adaptation Planning Using a Values-Focused Approach: A Case Study with the Gitga’at Nation, Journal of Ethnobiology. 34 (2014) 401–424. doi:10.2993/0278-0771-34.3.401.
MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, D.J. Smith, B. Taylor, Extreme Sea Surge Responses to Climate Variability in Coastal British Columbia, Canada, Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 101 (2011) 992–1010. doi:10.1080/00045608.2011.585929.

Central Coast – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Increasing average air temperatures by 1.6°C (0.9°C to 2.4°C) by 2050 and 2.4°C (1.3°C to 3.7°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; Average air temperatures may reach between ~7°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +287 (+171 to +425) by 2050 and +466 (+255 to +747) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +27(+13 to +39) by 2050 and +38 (+20 to +60) by 2080 [1]; Increasing winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C by 2080 [4].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2]; Potential benefits to tourism due to longer warm seasons [2]; Potential increases in energy requirements for heating and cooling [5].	Medium
Precipitation	Increasing average annual precipitation by 5% (0% to 11%) by 2050 and 9% (3% to 18%) by 2080, ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -23% (-40% to -6%) by 2050 and -30% (-60% to -12%) by 2080 [1]; Increasing average precipitation by ~15% with RCP 2.6 and ~29% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Threats on fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [6]; Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional food availability [2].	High
Sea Level Rise	Sea level rise from 0.75m to a little over 1m. Areas in the northern parts to experience a greater increase; ~1m [7].	Low	Threats to: cultural and heritage resources and traditional food sources [5], [7], water quality and availability [5], fisheries industry [5], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5]; Reduced access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5].	Low
Sea Surface Temperature	Average sea surface temperature to be ~11°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increases in sea surface temperature by ~1.9°C and average temperature to be ~11-12.5°C by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6].	High	Threats on fisheries industry [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fishery species abundance and distribution [5], [9].	Medium
Ocean Acidification	Average ~7.95 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.68 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decrease in pH levels will increase ocean acidity [5].	Medium	Threats to: calcifying organisms [5], [8], aquaculture industry [5], [8], larger scale ecosystems [5], [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5], [8].	Medium
Oxygenation	Decreases in dissolved oxygen levels [5].	Low	Threats to: fisheries industry [5], the habitat range of species that tolerate low oxygen habitats [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries [5].	Medium
Streamflow
Sea Surface Salinity	Declining sea surface salinity by ~1.5% with RCP 2.6 and ~3% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Declining sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.8 increase in psu unit) around Penrose Island [6], ~1% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.5 increase in psu unit) around Klemtu to Butedale [6].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats [5], fisheries [6]; Economic impacts on communities associated with impacts on fisheries [5], [9].	High
Winds, Waves and Storms	Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5].	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], water quality and availability for communities [5], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5]; Impacts on climate-sensitive sectors such as tourism and fisheries [5].	Medium
General	Increasing intensity of cumulative climate impacts [2], [8].	High	Threats to: access to traditional foods [5], [9], biodiversity [8], species abundance and distribution [9], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [9], resource conservation due to ecosystem stress [5], tourism and wildlife viewing opportunities as species distribution and habitat change [5]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [9].	High

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative


Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Central Coast 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
[IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, A. Montenegro, S. Jessen, Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Canada’s Pacific Marine Ecosystems, CPAWS BC and WWF-Canada, Vancouver, BC, 2012.
L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.

North Coast – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperature may increase by 1.7°C (1.1°C to 2.5°C) by 2050 and 2.6°C (1.5°C to 4.3°C) by 20801, 2; and average temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Likely more growing degree days: 237 (+150 to +369) growing degree days by 2050 and +362 (+213 to +700) by 2080 [1]; Likely more frost free days: +24 (+13 to +36) frost free days by 2050 and +37 (+18 to +58) by 2080 [1]; Higher winter minimum temperatures (4–9°C higher) and summer maximum temperatures (3–4°C higher) by 2080 [4].	High	Higher energy requirements for heating and cooling [5]; Lower water availability [2].	Medium
Precipitation	Annual precipitation may increase by 7% (3% to 12%) by 2050 and 12% (7% to 22%) by 2080, in all seasons except summer [1], [2]; up to ~18% more precipitation with low emissions (RCP2.6) and ~25% more with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3], [6]; Winter snowfall may decrease by -10% (-18% to +5%) by 2050 and -11% (-32% to -1%) by 2080 [1];	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], [6], food security [5], slope stability [2], community safety due to increased risk of landslides [2]; Increases in: fresh water input into oceans, associated impacts on fisheries 6, freeze-thaw processes [2].	High
Sea Level Rise	Rising sea levels are likely: 0.6m to 1.2m. Areas in the northern parts may experience a greater increase ~1.2m6,7.	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], [6], cultural and heritage resources [5], [7], food security and traditional food sources [5], [7], marine infrastructure, operations and transportation lanes [5], access to, or loss of natural recreation and tourism assets [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8].	Medium
Sea Surface Temperature	Increases in sea surface temperatures by ~2°C and average temperatures to be ~10-11.5°C by 2065-20786; ~2.5°C increase in sea surface temperatures at the east of Dundas Islands [6].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries industry [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].	Medium
Ocean Acidification	Decreasing in pH levels leading to ocean acidification [5].	Low	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], [9], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], calcifying organisms [5], [9], aquaculture industry5,9, commercial harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5], [9].	Medium
Oxygenation	Declining dissolved oxygen levels [5].	Low	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], fisheries industry [5], habitat range of species that tolerate low oxygen habitats [9]; commercial harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].	Medium
Streamflow
Sea Surface Salinity	Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% (~0.2 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [6], ~1.4% increase in sea surface salinity (~0.4 increase in psu unit) around at the east of Dundas Islands [6], ~8% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Larcom Island [6], ~5% increase in sea surface salinity (~1.2 increase in psu unit) north east of Gil Island [6].	High	Threats to: species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries industry [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5].	Medium
Winds, Waves and Storms	Increasing frequency and severity of storm events [2], [5].	Medium	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [5], species abundance and/or distribution [5], [10], fisheries harvests [5], food security [5]; Economic impacts on communities due to changes in fisheries and ecosystem health [5]; Increase in coastal erosion and associated impacts on communities and marine infrastructure [8].	High
General	Climate change effects are expected to become even more dramatic in coming years [9].	High	Threats to: species abundance and distribution [10], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [10], salmon catch potential [10], access to traditional foods [5], [10]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [10]; Economic, social and cultural impacts on communities due to salmon running later, berries ready earlier, and unpredictable weather observations [10], [11].	Medium

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative


Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Kitimat-Stikine 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
PCIC, Climate summary for Skeena Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-Skeena.pdf
[IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.
R. Anderson, Kitkatla: Climate Change and Adaptations & Diet and Diabetes – Final Fieldwork Report, Forests and Oceans for the Future, University of British Columbia, 2005.

Haida Gwaii – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Climate Impact	Projected Changes	Evidence Quality	Sectoral Impacts	Impacts Summary	Evidence Quality
Air Temperature	Average air temperatures may increase by 1.4°C (0.8°C to 2.2°C) by 2050 and 2.2°C (1.1°C to 3.5°C) by 2080 [1], [2]; South Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~7.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~11.5°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Average air temperatures may reach ~8.5°C with low emission scenario (RCP 2.6) and ~12°C with high emission scenario (RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 [3]; Growing degree days: +317 (+182 to +506) by 2050 and +514 (+264 to +855) by 2080 [1]; Frost free days: +22 (+13 to +31) by 2050 and +32 (+18 to +46) by 2080 [1]; Increases in winter minimum temperatures by 4–9°C by 2080 and summer maximum temperatures by 3–4°C [4].	High	Threats to: fisheries [2], fisheries related tourism [2], water supply [2]; Potential positive benefits to tourism due to warmer and longer summer season [2].		High
Precipitation	Increases in average annual precipitation by 7% (0% to 10%) by 2050 and 9% (4% to 17%) by 2080, and ~10% decrease in summer [1], [2]; Decreasing winter snowfall by -35% (-54% to -11%) by 2050 and -48% (-72% to -22%) by 2080 [1]; South Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~18% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~25% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; North Haida Gwaii: Increasing average precipitation by ~20% (low emissions, RCP 2.6) and ~22% (high emissions, RCP 8.5) by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Potential damaging impacts on ecosystems and habitats [2]; Changes in access and seasonality of traditional foods [2].		High
Sea Level Rise	Extreme low projections of 0.1-0.31m, mean projections of 0.25-0.46m, extreme high projections of 0.95-1.16m [5]; Average sea level may increase by 0.7-1.32m. North and northwest coast may experience ~1.32m, northeast and the southwest coast may experience ~1-1.2m [6].	Medium	Threats to: cultural and historic sites [6], coastal development and settlements due to flooding and erosion [7], [8], marine infrastructure due to flooding and erosion [7], [8], ecosystem health, resilience and productivity as well as coastal habitats, loss of wetlands and pollution [8]; Ecological, economic, social and technological impacts and adaptation challenges [8].		Medium
Sea Surface Temperature	South Haida Gwaii: Average sea surface temperature to be ~11.75°C with RCP 2.6 and ~14°C with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Increasing sea surface temperature by up to 1.5°C in less than 100 years5; or by ~2.1°C compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9]; average temperature to be ~10.5-12.5°C by 2065-2078 [9].	High	Potential positive benefits to seagrasses and the kelp species Macrocystisspp [5]; Impacts on a variety of marine species [5].	+	High
Ocean Acidification	Decreasing ocean pH levels. South Haida Gwaii: Average ~7.96 ph unit with RCP 2.6 and ~7.69 ph unit with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3].	High	Threats to: calcifying organisms [5], [8], aquaculture industry [5], [8], larger scale ecosystem effects [5], [8]; Economic impacts on communities due to impacts on aquaculture and potential impacts on fisheries [5], [8].		Medium
Oxygenation	Declining ocean oxygen levels [9].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats due to decreased salinity levels [5], fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [9].		High
Streamflow	Changing timing of streamflow - earlier freshet, less snowpack, higher water volume earlier in spring [8].	Low	Threats on salmon migration, spawning, and incubation [8].		Low
Sea Surface Salinity	South Haida Gwaii: Decreasing sea surface salinity by ~1% with RCP 2.6 and ~3.4% with RCP 8.5 by 2091-2100 compared to 1961-1990 baseline [3]; Decreasing sea surface salinity by less than 1% (~0.3 decrease in psu unit) by 2065-2078 compared to 1995-2008 baseline [9], ~5% decrease in sea surface salinity (~1.2 decrease in psu unit) around Masset Inlet [9].	High	Impacts on: ecosystems and habitats due to decreased salinity levels [5], fisheries due to increases in fresh water input and associated changes in salinity levels [9].		High
Winds, Waves and Storms	Stronger future storm events [2], [10] and increases in storm surge frequency [2].	High	Threats to: ecosystems and habitats [2], coastal development and settlements due to flooding and erosion [2], [8], marine infrastructure and flood protection infrastructure due to severe weather events and associated wave and erosion damage [2], [7], [8], critical infrastructure such as utility lines, power, communications transmissions, and access to grocery and other supplies [8], [11], marine and land transportation lanes due to severe weather events [8], [11].		High
General	Increasing intensity of cumulative climate change impacts [5].	High	Threats to: species abundance and distribution [12], catch potential for all commercial fisheries [12], salmon catch potential [12], access to traditional foods [5], [12]; Northward shift in species range and abundance [12].		High


Ecosystems	Communities	Fisheries and Aquaculture	Marine Infrastructure

* Data specific to MaPP region

α Unless indicated, all sectoral impacts are negative

PCIC, Plan2Adapt: Summary of Climate Change for Skeena-Queen Charlotte 2050s & 2080s, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. https://pacificclimate.org/analysis-tools/plan2adapt (Accessed December 1, 2017).
PCIC, Climate summary for West Coast Region, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, BC, 2013. https://www.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/Climate_Summary-West_Coast.pdf
[IPCC WG5]. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, 2013. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/science-research-data/modeling-projections-analysis/centre-modelling-analysis.html
D.L. Spittlehouse, Climate Change, Impacts and Adaptation Scenarios: Climate Change and Forest and Range Management in British Columbia, British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range Forest Scienc, 2008.
T.A. Okey, H.M. Alidina, V. Lo, S. Jessen, Effects of climate change on Canada’s Pacific marine ecosystems: a summary of scientific knowledge, Rev Fish Biol Fisheries. 24 (2014) 519–559. doi:10.1007/s11160-014-9342-1.
J.M. Kershner, R.M. Gregg, K. Feifel, Climate Change Vulnerability Maps for the North Pacific Coast of British Columbia: Implications for Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning, EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA, 2014.
D.S. Abeysirigunawardena, I.J. Walker, Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia, Atmosphere-Ocean. 46 (2008) 277–296. doi:10.3137/ao.460301.
MaPP, Climate Change Commitments from MaPP Sub-Regional Marine Plans and the Regional Action Framework (RAF), Marine Plan Partnership, 2016.
M.G.G. Foreman, W. Callendar, D. Masson, J. Morrison, I. Fine, A Model Simulation of Future Oceanic Conditions along the British Columbia Continental Shelf. Part II: Results and Analyses, Atmosphere-Ocean. 52 (2014) 20–38. doi:10.1080/07055900.2013.873014.
I.J. Walker, J.V. Barrie, Geomorphology and sea-level rise on one of Canada’s most sensitive coasts: Northeast Graham Island, British Columbia, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue. 39:1 (2006) 220–226. doi:10.2307/25741565.
I.J. Walker, R. Sydneysmith, British Columbia, in: D.S. Lemmen, F.J. Warren, J. Lacroix, E. Bush (Eds.), From Impacts to Adaptation Canada in a Changing Climate, 2008: pp. 1–58.
L.V. Weatherdon, Y. Ota, M.C. Jones, D.A. Close, W.W.L. Cheung, Projected Scenarios for Coastal First Nations’ Fisheries Catch Potential under Climate Change: Management Challenges and Opportunities, PLoS ONE. 11 (2016) e0145285.

MaPP Region – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

North Vancouver Island – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Central Coast – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

North Coast – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Haida Gwaii – Summary table for climate impacts, projected changes and sectoral impacts

Written by Charlotte K. Whitney and Tugce Conger

Written by Charlotte K. Whitney, Tugce Conger, Natalie C. Ban, and Romney McPhie